顯示具有 巴菲特致股東函 標籤的文章。 顯示所有文章
顯示具有 巴菲特致股東函 標籤的文章。 顯示所有文章

巴菲特致股東函 2024

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.
波克夏海瑟薇公司

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
致波克夏海瑟薇公司股東:

This letter comes to you as part of Berkshire’s annual report. As a public company, we
are required to periodically tell you many specific facts and figures.

這封信是波克夏年度報告的一部分。作為一家上市公司,我們需要定期報告許多事實和數據給各位。

“Report,” however, implies a greater responsibility. In addition to the mandated data, we
believe we owe you additional commentary about what you own and how we think. Our goal is
to communicate with you in a manner that we would wish you to use if our positions were
reversed – that is, if you were Berkshire’s CEO while I and my family were passive investors,
trusting you with our savings.

然而,「報告」意味著更大的責任。除了規定的數據外,我們認為我們還應該向各位提供更多關於各位所擁有的資產以及我們的想法的評論。我們的目標是以我們希望各位使用的方式與各位溝通,如果我們的位置顛倒過來的話,也就是說,如果各位是波克夏的 CEO,而我和我的家人是消極的投資者,將我們的儲蓄委託給各位。

This approach leads us to an annual recitation of both good and bad developments at the
many businesses you indirectly own through your Berkshire shares. When discussing problems
at specific subsidiaries, we do, however, try to follow the advice Tom Murphy gave to me 60
years ago: “praise by name, criticize by category.”

這種方法引導我們每年都要敘述各位透過波克夏股票間接擁有的許多企業的好與壞的發展。然而,在討論特定子公司的問題時,我們會盡量遵循 Tom Murphy 60 年前給我的建議:「公開讚揚,分類批評」。

Mistakes – Yes, We Make Them at Berkshire
錯誤 - 是的,我們在波克夏會犯錯

Sometimes I’ve made mistakes in assessing the future economics of a business I’ve
purchased for Berkshire – each a case of capital allocation gone wrong. That happens with both
judgments about marketable equities – we view these as partial ownership of businesses – and
the 100% acquisitions of companies.

有時候,我在評估我為波克夏購買的企業的未來經濟狀況時犯了錯誤-每一項都是資本配置錯誤的案例。這種情況發生在對可交易股票的判斷上--我們將這些視為企業的部分所有權--以及對公司 100% 的收購上。

At other times, I’ve made mistakes when assessing the abilities or fidelity of the
managers Berkshire is hiring. The fidelity disappointments can hurt beyond their financial
impact, a pain that can approach that of a failed marriage.

有時候,我在評估波克夏聘用的管理人員的能力或忠誠度時犯了錯誤。對忠誠度的失望造成的傷害可能超過其財務影響,這種痛苦可能接近婚姻失敗的程度。

A decent batting average in personnel decisions is all that can be hoped for. The cardinal
sin is delaying the correction of mistakes or what Charlie Munger called “thumb-sucking.”
Problems, he would tell me, cannot be wished away. They require action, however
uncomfortable that may be.

在人事決策中,能有差強人意的打擊率就值得慶幸了。最大的罪過是延遲糾正錯誤,或是查理 · 蒙格 (Charlie Munger) 所說的「吮拇指」。他會告訴我,問題無法被祈禱消失。它們需要行動,無論這有多麼令人不舒服。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

During the 2019-23 period, I have used the words “mistake” or “error” 16 times in my
letters to you. Many other huge companies have never used either word over that span. Amazon,
I should acknowledge, made some brutally candid observations in its 2021 letter. Elsewhere, it
has generally been happy talk and pictures.

在 2019 年至 2023 年期間,我在給各位的信中使用了 16 次「錯誤」或「失誤」這兩個詞。許多其他大型公司從未使用過這兩個詞。我應該承認,亞馬遜 (Amazon) 在其 2021 年的信中做了一些非常坦率的觀察。在其他地方,通常都是快樂的談話和圖片。

I have also been a director of large public companies at which “mistake” or “wrong” were
forbidden words at board meetings or analyst calls. That taboo, implying managerial perfection,
always made me nervous (though, at times, there could be legal issues that make limited
discussion advisable. We live in a very litigious society.)

我也曾擔任大型上市公司的董事,在這些公司的董事會會議或分析師電話會議上,「錯誤」或「錯誤」是禁忌詞。這種禁忌意味著管理上的完美,總是讓我感到緊張(儘管有時可能存在法律問題,使得有限的討論是明智的。我們生活在一個非常愛打官司的社會。)

* * * * * * * * * * * *

At 94, it won’t be long before Greg Abel replaces me as CEO and will be writing the
annual letters. Greg shares the Berkshire creed that a “report” is what a Berkshire CEO annually
owes to owners. And he also understands that if you start fooling your shareholders, you will
soon believe your own baloney and be fooling yourself as well.

94 歲時,格雷格 · 阿貝爾 (Greg Abel) 將很快取代我擔任 CEO,並撰寫年度信件。格雷格也認同波克夏的信條,即波克夏 CEO 每年都對所有者負有「報告」的義務。他還明白,如果你開始欺騙你的股東,你很快就會相信自己的胡說八道,也會欺騙自己。

Pete Liegl – One of a Kind
皮特 · 利格爾 - 獨一無二

Let me pause to tell you the remarkable story of Pete Liegl, a man unknown to most
Berkshire shareholders but one who contributed many billions to their aggregate wealth. Pete
died in November, still working at 80.

請允許我停下來告訴各位皮特 · 利格爾 (Pete Liegl) 的非凡故事,這個人對大多數波克夏股東來說並不認識,但卻為他們的總體財富貢獻了數十億美元。皮特於 11 月去世,享年 80 歲,仍在工作。

I first heard of Forest River – the Indiana company Pete founded and managed – on
June 21, 2005. On that day I received a letter from an intermediary detailing relevant data about
the company, a recreational vehicle (“RV”) manufacturer. The writer said that Pete, the 100%
owner of Forest River, specifically wanted to sell to Berkshire. He also told me the price that Pete
expected to receive. I liked this no-nonsense approach.

我第一次聽說 Forest River -皮特在印第安納州創立和管理的這家公司 - 是在 2005 年 6 月 21 日。那天,我收到了一封來自中間人的信,詳細介紹了這家休閒車(「RV」)製造商的相關數據。作者說,皮特是 Forest River 的 100% 所有者,他特別想賣給波克夏。他還告訴我皮特期望收到的價格。我喜歡這種毫不廢話的方式。

I did some checking with RV dealers, liked what I learned and arranged a June 28th
meeting in Omaha. Pete brought along his wife, Sharon, and daughter, Lisa. When we met, Pete
assured me that he wanted to keep running the business but would feel more comfortable if he
could assure financial security for his family.

我與 RV 經銷商進行了一些核實,喜歡我所了解到的,並安排了 6 月 28 日在奧馬哈舉行會議。皮特帶了他的妻子莎朗 (Sharon) 和女兒麗莎 (Lisa) 一起來。當我們見面時,皮特向我保證,他想繼續經營這項業務,但如果他能確保家人的財務安全,他會感到更舒服。

Pete next mentioned that he owned some real estate that was leased to Forest River and
had not been covered in the June 21 letter. Within a few minutes, we arrived at a price for those
assets as I expressed no need for appraisal by Berkshire but would simply accept his valuation.

皮特接著提到,他擁有一些出租給 Forest River 的房地產,這些房地產沒有包含在 6 月 21 日的信中。幾分鐘之內,我們就達成了這些資產的價格,因為我表示波克夏不需要進行評估,而只會接受他的估值。

Then we arrived at the other point that needed clarity. I asked Pete what his compensation
should be, adding that whatever he said, I would accept. (This, I should add, is not an approach I
recommend for general use.)

然後我們談到了另一個需要釐清的重點。我問皮特他的薪酬應該是多少,並補充說無論他說什麼,我都會接受。(我應該補充一點,我不建議普遍使用這種方法。)


Pete paused as his wife, daughter and I leaned forward. Then he surprised us: “Well, I
looked at Berkshire’s proxy statement and I wouldn’t want to make more than my boss, so pay
me $100,000 per year.” After I picked myself off the floor, Pete added: “But we will earn X (he
named a number) this year, and I would like an annual bonus of 10% of any earnings above what
the company is now delivering.” I replied: “OK Pete, but if Forest River makes any significant
acquisitions we will make an appropriate adjustment for the additional capital thus employed.” I
didn’t define “appropriate” or “significant,” but those vague terms never caused a problem.

皮特停頓了一下,他的妻子、女兒和我向前傾。然後他讓我們驚訝:「嗯,我看過波克夏的委託聲明,我不希望比我的老闆賺更多,所以每年給我 10 萬美元。」在我從地板上爬起來後,皮特補充說:「但是我們今年將賺取 X(他說出了一個數字),我希望每年獲得超過公司現在所交付的任何收益的 10% 的獎金。」我回答說:「好的,皮特,但是如果 Forest River 進行任何重大的收購,我們將對所使用的額外資本進行適當的調整。」我沒有定義「適當」或「重大」,但這些模糊的術語從未引起任何問題。

The four of us then went to dinner at Omaha’s Happy Hollow Club and lived happily
ever after. During the next 19 years, Pete shot the lights out. No competitor came close to his
performance.


然後我們四個人去了奧馬哈的 Happy Hollow Club 吃晚餐,從此過上了幸福的生活。在接下來的 19 年裡,皮特表現出色。沒有競爭對手能接近他的表現。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Every company doesn’t have an easy-to-understand business and there are very few
owners or managers like Pete. And, of course, I expect to make my share of mistakes about the
businesses Berkshire buys and sometimes err in evaluating the sort of person with whom I’m
dealing.

並非每家公司都擁有容易理解的業務,而且像皮特這樣的擁有者或經理人也屈指可數。而且,當然,我希望在波克夏購買的企業上犯下我應有的錯誤,並且有時在評估我所打交道的人的能力時出錯。

But I’ve also had many pleasant surprises in both the potential of the business as well as
the ability and fidelity of the manager. And our experience is that a single winning decision can
make a breathtaking difference over time. (Think GEICO as a business decision, Ajit Jain as a
managerial decision and my luck in finding Charlie Munger as a one-of-a-kind partner, personal
advisor and steadfast friend.) Mistakes fade away; winners can forever blossom.

但是,我在企業的潛力以及經理人的能力和忠誠度方面也獲得了許多令人愉快的驚喜。而且我們的經驗是,一個成功的決策可以隨著時間的推移產生驚人的差異。(想想 GEICO 作為一項業務決策,Ajit Jain 作為一項管理決策,以及我幸運地找到查理 · 蒙格 (Charlie Munger) 作為獨一無二的合作夥伴、私人顧問和堅定的朋友。)錯誤會消失;贏家可以永遠綻放。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

One further point in our CEO selections: I never look at where a candidate has gone to
school. Never!

關於我們 CEO 的選擇還有一個重點:我從不看候選人去哪裡上學。從不!

Of course, there are great managers who attended the most famous schools. But there are
plenty such as Pete who may have benefitted by attending a less prestigious institution or even
by not bothering to finish school. Look at my friend, Bill Gates, who decided that it was far more
important to get underway in an exploding industry that would change the world than it was to
stick around for a parchment that he could hang on the wall. (Read his new book, Source Code.)

當然,有些偉大的經理人畢業於最著名的學校。但是也有很多像皮特這樣的人,他們可能因為就讀於一所不太知名的學校,甚至是不費心完成學業而受益。看看我的朋友比爾 · 蓋茨 (Bill Gates),他認為在一個將改變世界的爆炸性產業中起步遠比留在原地獲得一張可以掛在牆上的羊皮紙更重要。(閱讀他的新書《原始碼》。)

Not long ago, I met – by phone – Jessica Toonkel, whose step-grandfather, Ben Rosner,
long ago ran a business for Charlie and me. Ben was a retailing genius and, in preparing for this
report, I checked with Jessica to confirm Ben’s schooling, which I remembered as limited.
Jessica’s reply: “Ben never went past 6th grade.”

不久前,我透過電話認識了潔西卡 · 圖恩克爾 (Jessica Toonkel),她的繼祖父本 · 羅斯納 (Ben Rosner) 很久以前為查理和我經營一家企業。本是一位零售天才,在準備這份報告時,我與潔西卡核實了本的學歷,我記得他的學歷有限。潔西卡的回答:「本從未上過六年級。」

 was lucky enough to get an education at three fine universities. And I avidly believe in
lifelong learning. I’ve observed, however, that a very large portion of business talent is innate
with nature swamping nurture.

我很幸運能在三所優秀的大學接受教育。我熱切地相信終身學習。然而,我觀察到,很大一部分的商業才能是與生俱來的,天性淹沒了後天。

IPete Liegl was a natural.
皮特 · 利格爾是天生的。

Last Year’s Performance

去年的表現

In 2024, Berkshire did better than I expected though 53% of our 189 operating
businesses reported a decline in earnings. We were aided by a predictable large gain in
investment income as Treasury Bill yields improved and we substantially increased our holdings
of these highly-liquid short-term securities.

在 2024 年,波克夏的表現比我預期的要好,儘管我們的 189 家營運企業中有 53% 的收益下降。由於國債收益率的提高,我們的投資收入獲得了可預測的大幅增長,並且我們大幅增加了對這些高度流動性短期證券的持有,這對我們有所幫助。

Our insurance business also delivered a major increase in earnings, led by the
performance of GEICO. In five years, Todd Combs has reshaped GEICO in a major way,
increasing efficiency and bringing underwriting practices up to date. GEICO was a long-held
gem that needed major repolishing, and Todd has worked tirelessly in getting the job done.
Though not yet complete, the 2024 improvement was spectacular.

我們的保險業務也實現了收益的大幅增長,這主要歸功於 GEICO 的出色表現。在過去的五年裡,Todd Combs 大幅重塑了 GEICO,提高了效率,並更新了核保實務。GEICO 是一顆長期持有的寶石,需要重新打磨,而 Todd 一直在不知疲倦地完成這項工作。雖然尚未完成,但 2024 年的改善是驚人的。

In general, property-casualty (“P/C”) insurance pricing strengthened during 2024,
reflecting a major increase in damage from convective storms. Climate change may have been
announcing its arrival. However, no “monster” event occurred during 2024. Someday, any day, a
truly staggering insurance loss will occur – and there is no guarantee that there will be only one
per annum.

總體而言,財產 - 意外 (「P/C」) 保險定價在 2024 年有所增強,反映了對流風暴造成的損失大幅增加。氣候變遷可能已經宣布它的到來。然而,2024 年沒有發生「怪物」事件。總有一天,任何一天,都會發生一場真正驚人的保險損失——而且不能保證每年只會發生一次。

The P/C business is so central to Berkshire that it warrants a further discussion that
appears later in this letter.

P/C 業務對波克夏來說至關重要,因此值得在本信後面進一步討論。

Berkshire’s railroad and utility operations, our two largest businesses outside of
insurance, improved their aggregate earnings. Both, however, have much left to accomplish.

波克夏的鐵路和公用事業業務是我們保險以外最大的兩項業務,它們的總體收益有所提高。然而,兩者都還有很多事情要做。

Late in the year we increased our ownership of the utility operation from about 92% to
100% at a cost of roughly $3.9 billion, of which $2.9 billion was paid in cash with a balance in
Berkshire “B” shares.

在今年年底,我們以約 39 億美元的成本將我們對公用事業業務的所有權從約 92% 提高到 100%,其中 29 億美元以現金支付,餘額以波克夏「B」股支付。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

All told, we recorded operating earnings of $47.4 billion in 2024. We regularly – endlessly,
some readers may groan – emphasize this measure rather than the GAAP-mandated earnings that
are reported on page K-68.

總而言之,我們在 2024 年記錄了 474 億美元的營運獲利。我們經常 - 有些讀者可能會抱怨 - 無休止地強調這個衡量標準,而不是 GAAP 規定的收益,這些收益已在 K-68 頁上報告.

Our measure excludes capital gains or losses on the stocks and bonds we own, whether
realized or unrealized. Over time, we think it highly likely that gains will prevail – why else
would we buy these securities? – though the year-by-year numbers will swing wildly and
unpredictably. Our horizon for such commitments is almost always far longer than a single year.
In many, our thinking involves decades. These long-termers are the purchases that sometimes
make the cash register ring like church bells.

我們的衡量標準不包括我們擁有的股票和債券的資本收益或損失,無論是已實現的還是未實現的. 隨著時間的推移,我們認為收益很可能會佔上風 - 否則我們為什麼要購買這些證券呢? - 儘管每年的數字都會劇烈且不可預測地波動. 我們對這些承諾的期限幾乎總是遠長於一年。在許多情況下,我們的思考涉及數十年。這些長期投資有時會讓收銀機像教堂的鐘聲一樣響起.

Here’s a breakdown of the 2023-24 earnings as we see them. All calculations are after
depreciation, amortization and income tax. EBITDA, a flawed favorite of Wall Street, is not for
us.

以下是我們看到的 2023-24 年收益的細分。所有計算均在扣除折舊、攤銷和所得稅後進行。EBITDA 是華爾街一個有缺陷的熱門指標,不適合我們.

(in $ millions)(單位:百萬美元) 2024 2023

Insurance-underwriting 保險承保 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 9,020 $ 5,428

Insurance-investment income 保險投資收入 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,670 9,567

BNSF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,031 5,087

Berkshire Hathaway Energy 波克夏能源 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,730 2,331

Other controlled businesses 其他受控企業 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,072 13,362

Non-controlled businesses* 非受控企業 * . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,519 1,750

Other** 其他 ** . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,395 (175)

Operating earnings 營運獲利 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $47,437 $37,350

* Includes certain businesses in which Berkshire had between a 20% and 50% ownership
such as Kraft Heinz, Occidental Petroleum and Berkadia.

• 包括波克夏擁有 20% 至 50% 所有權的某些企業,例如卡夫亨氏 (Kraft Heinz)、西方石油 (Occidental Petroleum) 和 Berkadia。

** Includes foreign currency exchange gains of approximately $1.1 billion in 2024 and
approximately $211 million in 2023 produced by our usage of non-U.S. dollar-denominated
debt.

**包括因我們使用非美元計價債務而產生的外幣兌換收益,2024 年約為 11 億美元,2023 年約為 2.11 億美元。


Surprise, Surprise! An Important American Record is Smashed

驚喜,驚喜!一項重要的美國紀錄被打破

Sixty years ago, present management took control of Berkshire. That move was a
mistake – my mistake – and one that plagued us for two decades. Charlie, I should emphasize,
spotted my obvious error immediately: Though the price I paid for Berkshire looked cheap, its
business – a large northern textile operation – was headed for extinction.

60 年前,現任管理階層接管了波克夏。此舉是一個錯誤 - 我的錯誤 - 並且困擾了我們 20 年。 我應該強調,查理立即發現了我明顯的錯誤:儘管我為波克夏支付的價格看起來很便宜,但它的業務 - 一個大型的北方紡織業務 - 卻走向了滅絕。

The U.S. Treasury, of all places, had already received silent warnings of Berkshire’s
destiny. In 1965, the company did not pay a dime of income tax, an embarrassment that had
generally prevailed at the company for a decade. That sort of economic behavior may be
understandable for glamorous startups, but it’s a blinking yellow light when it happens at a
venerable pillar of American industry. Berkshire was headed for the ash can.

美國財政部(所有地方)已經收到了波克夏命運的沉默警告。1965 年,該公司沒有支付一毛錢的所得稅,這是一種恥辱,在該公司普遍存在了十年。對於有魅力的新創公司來說,這種經濟行為可能是可以理解的,但當它發生在美國工業的古老支柱身上時,這是一個閃爍的黃燈。波克夏正走向灰燼。

Fast forward 60 years and imagine the surprise at the Treasury when that same
company – still operating under the name of Berkshire Hathaway – paid far more in corporate
income tax than the U.S. government had ever received from any company – even the American
tech titans that commanded market values in the trillions.

快進 60 年,想像一下財政部的驚訝,當同一家公司 - 仍然以波克夏的名義經營 - 支付的企業所得稅遠多於美國政府從任何公司收到的稅款 - 甚至是市值數萬億美元的美國科技巨頭。

To be precise, Berkshire last year made four payments to the IRS that totaled $26.8
billion. That’s about 5% of what all of corporate America paid. (In addition, we paid sizable
amounts for income taxes to foreign governments and to 44 states.)

確切地說,波克夏去年向美國國稅局 (IRS) 支付了四筆款項,總計 268 億美元。這約佔美國所有企業支付的 5%。 (此外,我們還向外國政府和 44 個州支付了相當數量的所得稅。)

Note one crucial factor allowing this record-shattering payment: Berkshire shareholders
during the same 1965-2024 period received only one cash dividend. On January 3, 1967, we
disbursed our sole payment – $101,755 or 10¢ per A share. (I can’t remember why I suggested
this action to Berkshire’s board of directors. Now it seems like a bad dream.)

請注意允許這項打破紀錄的付款的一個關鍵因素:在 1965-2024 年期間,波克夏股東僅收到一次現金股息。1967 年 1 月 3 日,我們支付了我們唯一的付款——101,755 美元,即每股 A 股 10 美分。(我不記得我為什麼向波克夏董事會建議採取這項行動。現在這看起來像一場噩夢。)

For sixty years, Berkshire shareholders endorsed continuous reinvestment and that
enabled the company to build its taxable income. Cash income-tax payments to the U.S.
Treasury, miniscule in the first decade, now aggregate more than $101 billion . . . and counting.

60 年來,波克夏股東認可持續再投資,這使得公司能夠建立其應稅收入。 現金所得稅支付給美國財政部,在第一個十年微不足道,現在總計超過 1,010 億美元…… 並且還在增加。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Huge numbers can be hard to visualize. Let me recast the $26.8 billion that we paid last
year.

巨大的數字可能難以想像。讓我重新計算我們去年支付的 268 億美元。

If Berkshire had sent the Treasury a $1 million check every 20 minutes throughout all of
2024 – visualize 366 days and nights because 2024 was a leap year – we still would have owed
the federal government a significant sum at yearend. Indeed, it would be well into January before
the Treasury would tell us that we could take a short breather, get some sleep, and prepare for our
2025 tax payments.

如果波克夏在 2024 年全年每 20 分鐘向財政部寄出一張 100 萬美元的支票——想像 366 天和夜晚,因為 2024 年是閏年——我們仍然會在年底欠聯邦政府一筆可觀的款項。 事實上,要到一月份,財政部才會告訴我們,我們可以稍作喘息,睡一覺,並為我們 2025 年的稅款支付做好準備。

Where Your Money Is

各位的錢在哪裡

Berkshire’s equity activity is ambidextrous. In one hand we own control of many
businesses, holding at least 80% of the investee’s shares. Generally, we own 100%.
These 189 subsidiaries have similarities to marketable common stocks but are far from
identical. The collection is worth many hundreds of billions and includes a few rare gems,
many good-but-far-from-fabulous businesses and some laggards that have been disappointments.
We own nothing that is a major drag, but we have a number that I should not have purchased.

波克夏的股權活動是靈活的。一方面,我們控制著許多企業的所有權,至少持有被投資者 80% 的股份。一般來說,我們擁有 100% 的所有權。這 189 家子公司與可交易的普通股有相似之處,但遠非完全相同。這個集合價值數千億美元,包括一些稀有寶石、許多良好但遠非出色的企業,以及一些令人失望的落後者。我們沒有任何主要的拖累,但我們有一些我不應該購買的。

In the other hand, we own a small percentage of a dozen or so very large and highly
profitable businesses with household names such as Apple, American Express, Coca-Cola and
Moody’s. Many of these companies earn very high returns on the net tangible equity required for
their operations. At yearend, our partial-ownership holdings were valued at $272 billion.

另一方面,我們擁有一些非常龐大且利潤豐厚的企業的小部分股份,這些企業都是家喻戶曉的企業,例如蘋果 (Apple)、美國運通 (American Express)、可口可樂 (Coca-Cola) 和穆迪 (Moody"s)。 許多這些公司在運營所需的淨有形股權上賺取非常高的回報。在年底,我們部分所有權的控股價值為 2,720 億美元。

Understandably, really outstanding businesses are very seldom offered in their entirety, but small
fractions of these gems can be purchased Monday through Friday on Wall Street and, very
occasionally, they sell at bargain prices.

可以理解的是,真正傑出的企業很少以完整的形式提供,但這些寶石的一小部分可以在星期一至星期五在華爾街購買,而且偶爾會以低廉的價格出售。

We are impartial in our choice of equity vehicles, investing in either variety based upon
where we can best deploy your (and my family’s) savings. Often, nothing looks compelling; very
infrequently we find ourselves knee-deep in opportunities. Greg has vividly shown his ability to
act at such times as did Charlie.

我們在選擇股權工具方面是不偏不倚的,根據我們在哪裡可以最好地部署各位(和我家人的)儲蓄來投資任何一種。通常,沒有什麼看起來有吸引力;很少有時候,我們發現自己身處機會之中。 格雷格 (Greg) 已經生動地展示了他在此類時刻採取行動的能力,查理 (Charlie) 也是如此。

With marketable equities, it is easier to change course when I make a mistake.
Berkshire’s present size, it should be underscored, diminishes this valuable option. We can’t
come and go on a dime. Sometimes a year or more is required to establish or divest an
investment. Additionally, with ownership of minority positions we can’t change management if
that action is needed or control what is done with capital flows if we are unhappy with the
decisions being made.

對於可交易的股票,當我犯錯時,更容易改變方向。 應該強調的是,波克夏目前的規模削弱了這種寶貴的選擇。 我們無法隨時隨地進出。有時需要一年或更長時間才能建立或撤銷一項投資。 此外,對於少數股權的所有權,如果需要,我們無法改變管理階層,或者如果我們不滿意所做的決策,我們無法控制資本流的使用方式。

With controlled companies, we can dictate these decisions, but we have far less flexibility
in the disposition of mistakes. In reality, Berkshire almost never sells controlled businesses
unless we face what we believe to be unending problems. An offset is that some business owners
seek out Berkshire because of our steadfast behavior. Occasionally, that can be a decided plus for
us.

對於受控公司,我們可以決定這些決策,但在處理錯誤方面,我們的靈活性要小得多。實際上,波克夏幾乎從不出售受控企業,除非我們面臨我們認為永無止境的問題。 一個抵銷因素是,一些企業所有者因為我們堅定的行為而尋求波克夏。有時,這對我們來說可能是一個明確的優勢。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Despite what some commentators currently view as an extraordinary cash position at
Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities. That preference won’t change.
While our ownership in marketable equities moved downward last year from $354 billion to
$272 billion, the value of our non-quoted controlled equities increased somewhat and remains far
greater than the value of the marketable portfolio.

儘管一些評論員目前認為波克夏的現金狀況非常特殊,但各位的大部分資金仍然投資於股票。 這種偏好不會改變。 雖然我們在可交易股票中的所有權在去年從 3,540 億美元下降到 2,720 億美元,但我們非上市受控股票的價值略有增加,並且仍然遠大於可交易投資組合的價值。

Berkshire shareholders can rest assured that we will forever deploy a substantial majority
of their money in equities – mostly American equities although many of these will have
international operations of significance. Berkshire will never prefer ownership of cash-equivalent
assets over the ownership of good businesses, whether controlled or only partially owned.

波克夏股東可以放心,我們將永遠將其大部分資金部署在股票中——主要是美國股票,儘管其中許多公司將擁有重要的國際業務。 波克夏永遠不會偏好持有現金等價資產,而不是持有優質企業的所有權,無論是控股權還是部分所有權。

Paper money can see its value evaporate if fiscal folly prevails. In some countries, this
reckless practice has become habitual, and, in our country’s short history, the U.S. has come
close to the edge. Fixed-coupon bonds provide no protection against runaway currency.

如果財政愚蠢盛行,紙幣的價值可能會蒸發。 在一些國家,這種魯莽的做法已經成為習慣,而且在我國短暫的歷史中,美國也曾多次瀕臨崩潰。固定息票債券不能提供防止貨幣失控的保護。

Businesses, as well as individuals with desired talents, however, will usually find a way
to cope with monetary instability as long as their goods or services are desired by the country’s
citizenry. So, too, with personal skills. Lacking such assets as athletic excellence, a wonderful
voice, medical or legal skills or, for that matter, any special talents, I have had to rely on equities
throughout my life. In effect, I have depended on the success of American businesses and I will
continue to do so.

然而,只要一個國家的公民需要企業以及具有所需才能的個人所提供的商品或服務,他們通常會找到應對貨幣不穩定的方法。 個人技能也是如此。由於缺乏運動天賦、美妙的聲音、醫療或法律技能,或者在這方面缺乏任何特殊才能,我一生都不得不依賴股票。 實際上,我一直依賴美國企業的成功,並且我將繼續這樣做。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

One way or another, the sensible – better yet imaginative – deployment of savings by
citizens is required to propel an ever-growing societal output of desired goods and services. This
system is called capitalism. It has its faults and abuses – in certain respects more egregious now
than ever – but it also can work wonders unmatched by other economic systems.

公民的明智 - 最好是有想像力 - 管理儲蓄,這是推動社會不斷增長的所需商品和服務產出的必要條件。 這個系統被稱為資本主義。它有其缺點和弊端 - 在某些方面比以往任何時候都更加令人髮指- -但它也能創造出其他經濟體系無法比擬的奇蹟。

America is Exhibit A. Our country’s progress over its mere 235 years of existence could
not have been imagined by even the most optimistic colonists in 1789, when the Constitution
was adopted and the country’s energies were unleashed.

美國就是一個例證。 我們國家在短短 235 年的歷史中所取得的進步,即使是 1789 年制憲和國家力量得到釋放時最樂觀的殖民者也無法想像。

True, our country in its infancy sometimes borrowed abroad to supplement our own
savings. But, concurrently, we needed many Americans to consistently save and then needed
those savers or other Americans to wisely deploy the capital thus made available. If America had
consumed all that it produced, the country would have been spinning its wheels.

誠然,我們國家在初期有時會向國外借款以補充我們自己的儲蓄。但是,同時,我們需要許多美國人持續儲蓄,然後需要這些儲蓄者或其他美國人明智地部署由此提供的資本。 如果美國消耗了它所生產的一切,這個國家就會原地打轉。

The American process has not always been pretty – our country has forever had many
scoundrels and promoters who seek to take advantage of those who mistakenly trust them with
their savings. But even with such malfeasance – which remains in full force today – and also
much deployment of capital that eventually floundered because of brutal competition or
disruptive innovation, the savings of Americans has delivered a quantity and quality of output
beyond the dreams of any colonist.

美國的進程並不總是美好的 - 我們的國家永遠都有許多無賴和推銷員,他們試圖利用那些錯誤地將儲蓄託付給他們的人。 但即使存在這種不當行為 - 今天仍然有充分的效力 - 以及許多由於殘酷的競爭或顛覆性創新而最終失敗的資本部署,美國人的儲蓄也提供了數量和質量超出任何殖民者夢想的產出。

From a base of only four million people – and despite a brutal internal war early on,
pitting one American against another – America changed the world in the blink of a celestial eye.

從只有 400 萬人口的基礎——儘管早期發生了一場殘酷的內戰,使美國人互相對立——美國在極短的時間內改變了世界。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

In a very minor way, Berkshire shareholders have participated in the American miracle by
foregoing dividends, thereby electing to reinvest rather than consume. Originally, this
reinvestment was tiny, almost meaningless, but over time, it mushroomed, reflecting the mixture
of a sustained culture of savings, combined with the magic of long-term compounding.

在很小的程度上,波克夏股東透過放棄股息,從而選擇再投資而不是消費,參與了美國的奇蹟。 最初,這種再投資微不足道,幾乎毫無意義,但隨著時間的推移,它像蘑菇一樣增長,反映了持續的儲蓄文化與長期複利的神奇結合。

Berkshire’s activities now impact all corners of our country. And we are not finished.
Companies die for many reasons but, unlike the fate of humans, old age itself is not lethal.
Berkshire today is far more youthful than it was in 1965.

波克夏的活動現在影響到我們國家的各個角落。而且我們還沒有完成。 公司的死亡有很多原因,但與人類的命運不同,衰老本身並不是致命的。今天的波克夏比 1965 年更年輕。

However, as Charlie and I have always acknowledged, Berkshire would not have
achieved its results in any locale except America whereas America would have been every bit the
success it has been if Berkshire had never existed.

然而,正如查理和我一直承認的那樣,波克夏如果不是在美國,就不可能取得這樣的成果,而即使波克夏從未存在過,美國也會取得它所取得的每一項成功。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

So thank you, Uncle Sam. Someday your nieces and nephews at Berkshire hope to send
you even larger payments than we did in 2024. Spend it wisely. Take care of the many who, for
no fault of their own, get the short straws in life. They deserve better. And never forget that we
need you to maintain a stable currency and that result requires both wisdom and vigilance on
your part.

因此,感謝你,山姆大叔。 總有一天,各位在波克夏的侄子和侄女希望向各位寄出比我們在 2024 年支付的金額更大的款項。 明智地使用它。 照顧許多那些沒有任何過錯,卻在生活中遇到挫折的人。 他們值得更好的待遇。 永遠不要忘記,我們需要各位維持穩定的貨幣,而這個結果需要各位的智慧和警惕。


Property-Casualty Insurance
財產 - 意外保險

P/C insurance continues to be Berkshire’s core business. The industry follows a financial
model that is rare – very rare – among giant businesses.

P/C 保險仍然是波克夏的核心業務。 該行業遵循一種在大型企業中很少見——非常罕見——的財務模式。

Customarily, companies incur costs for labor, materials, inventories, plant and equipment,
etc. before – or concurrently with – the sale of their products or services. Consequently, their
CEOs have a good fix on knowing the cost of their product before they sell it. If the selling price
is less than its cost, managers soon learn they have a problem. Hemorrhaging cash is hard to
ignore.

通常,公司在銷售其產品或服務之前——或與之同時——會產生勞動力、材料、庫存、廠房和設備等的成本。 因此,他們的 CEO 對於在銷售產品之前了解其成本有很好的了解。 如果售價低於其成本,管理人員很快就會發現他們有問題。 難以忽視的現金流失。

When writing P/C insurance, we receive payment upfront and much later learn what our
product has cost us – sometimes a moment of truth that is delayed as much as 30 or more years.
(We are still making substantial payments on asbestos exposures that occurred 50 or more years
ago.)

在撰寫 P/C 保險時,我們會預先收到付款,並且會在很久以後才知道我們的產品讓我們付出了什麼代價——有時真相大白的時刻會延遲長達 30 年或更長時間。 (我們仍在為 50 年或更久以前發生的石棉風險支付大量款項。)

This mode of operations has the desirable effect of giving P/C insurers cash before
they incur most expenses but carries with it the risk that the company can be losing
money – sometimes mountains of money – before the CEO and directors realize what is
happening.

這種運營模式具有在產生大部分費用之前向 P/C 保險公司提供現金的理想效果,但也帶來了公司可能在虧損——有時是巨額虧損——的風險,然後 CEO 和董事才會意識到發生了什麼。

Certain lines of insurance minimize this mismatch, such as crop insurance or hail damage
in which losses are quickly reported, evaluated and paid. Other lines, however, can lead to
executive and shareholder bliss as the company is going broke. Think coverages such as medical
malpractice or product liability. In “long-tail” lines, a P/C insurer may report large but fictitious
profits to its owners and regulators for many years – even decades. The accounting can be
particularly dangerous if the CEO is an optimist or a crook. These possibilities are not fanciful:
History reveals a large number of each species.

某些保險業務最大限度地減少了這種不匹配,例如農作物保險或冰雹損害,在這些保險業務中,損失會很快被報告、評估和支付。 然而,其他業務可能會導致高管和股東的幸福感,因為公司正在破產。 考慮醫療事故或產品責任等承保範圍。 在「長尾」業務中,P/C 保險公司可能會向其所有者和監管機構報告多年——甚至數十年——的巨額但虛構的利潤。 如果 CEO 是一個樂觀主義者或一個騙子,那麼會計處理可能尤其危險。這些可能性並非憑空想像:歷史揭示了大量這兩個物種。

In recent decades, this “money-up-front, loss-payments-later” model has allowed
Berkshire to invest large sums (“float”) while generally delivering what we believe to be a small
underwriting profit. We make estimates for “surprises” and, so far, these estimates have been
sufficient.

近幾十年來,這種「先收錢,後付款」的模式使得波克夏能夠投資大量資金(「浮動」),同時普遍提供我們認為較小的承保利潤。 我們對「驚喜」進行估計,到目前為止,這些估計已經足夠。

We are not deterred by the dramatic and growing loss payments sustained by our
activities. (As I write this, think wildfires.) It’s our job to price to absorb these and unemotionally
take our lumps when surprises develop. It’s also our job to contest “runaway” verdicts, spurious
litigation and outright fraudulent behavior.

我們不會因為我們的活動所遭受的巨大且不斷增長的損失支付而感到沮喪。(當我寫這篇文章時,請想想野火。)我們的職責是對這些損失進行定價以吸收這些損失,並在出現驚喜時冷靜地接受我們的損失。 我們的職責還要對抗「失控」的判決、虛假的訴訟和徹頭徹尾的欺詐行為。

Under Ajit, our insurance operation has blossomed from an obscure Omaha-based
company into a world leader, renowned for both its taste for risk and its Gibraltar-like financial
strength. Moreover, Greg, our directors and I all have a very large investment in Berkshire in
relation to any compensation we receive. We do not use options or other one-sided forms of
compensation; if you lose money, so do we. This approach encourages caution but does not
ensure foresight.


在 Ajit 的領導下,我們的保險業務已經從一家默默無聞的奧馬哈公司發展成為世界領導者,以其對風險的品味和像直布羅陀一樣的財務實力而聞名。 此外,相對於我們收到的任何報酬,Greg、我們的董事和我自己在波克夏的投資都非常大。我們不使用期權或其他單方面的薪酬形式;如果各位賠錢,我們也會賠錢。 這種方法鼓勵謹慎,但不能確保遠見。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

P/C insurance growth is dependent on increased economic risk. No risk – no need for
insurance.

P/C 保險的增長取決於經濟風險的增加。 沒有風險——就不需要保險。

Think back only 135 years when the world had no autos, trucks or airplanes. Now there
are 300 million vehicles in the U.S. alone, a massive fleet causing huge damage daily. Property
damage arising from hurricanes, tornadoes and wildfires is massive, growing and increasingly
unpredictable in their patterns and eventual costs.

僅僅回想 135 年前,當時世界上沒有汽車、卡車或飛機。現在僅美國就有 3 億輛汽車,這是一支每天造成巨大損失的大型車隊。 因颶風、龍捲風和野火造成的財產損失是巨大的、不斷增長的,並且在其模式和最終成本方面越來越難以預測。

It would be foolish – make that madness – to write ten-year policies for these coverages,
but we believe one-year assumption of such risks is generally manageable. If we change our
minds, we will change the contracts we offer. During my lifetime, auto insurers have generally
abandoned one-year policies and switched to the six-month variety. This change reduced float
but allowed more intelligent underwriting.

為這些承保範圍撰寫十年期的保單是愚蠢的——說這是瘋狂的——但我們認為一年期承擔此類風險通常是可以控制的。 如果我們改變主意,我們會更改我們提供的合約。 在我的一生中,汽車保險公司普遍放棄了一年期的保單,轉而採用六個月的保單。這種變化減少了浮動,但允許更明智的核保。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

No private insurer has the willingness to take on the amount of risk that Berkshire can
provide. At times, this advantage can be important. But we also need to shrink when prices are
inadequate. We must never write inadequately-priced policies in order to stay in the game. That
policy is corporate suicide.

沒有一家私人保險公司願意承擔波克夏可以提供的風險。 有時,這種優勢可能很重要。 但是,當價格不夠時,我們也需要收縮。我們絕不能為了留在遊戲中而撰寫定價不足的保單。 這種策略是企業自殺。

Properly pricing P/C insurance is part art, part science and is definitely not a business for
optimists. Mike Goldberg, the Berkshire executive who recruited Ajit, said it best: “We want our
underwriters to daily come to work nervous, but not paralyzed.”

正確地為 P/C 保險定價既是藝術,也是科學,而且絕對不是樂觀主義者的業務。招募 Ajit 的波克夏高管 Mike Goldberg 說得最好:「我們希望我們的核保人員每天上班時都感到緊張,但不要癱瘓。」

* * * * * * * * * * * *

All things considered, we like the P/C insurance business. Berkshire can financially and
psychologically handle extreme losses without blinking. We are also not dependent on reinsurers
and that gives us a material and enduring cost advantage. Finally, we have outstanding managers
(no optimists) and are particularly well-situated to utilize the substantial sums P/C insurance
delivers for investment.

總之,我們喜歡 P/C 保險業務。 波克夏可以在財務上和心理上處理極端的損失而不會眨眼。 我們也不依賴再保險公司,這給了我們物質和持久的成本優勢。 最後,我們擁有傑出的經理人(不是樂觀主義者),並且特別擅長利用 P/C 保險公司提供的用於投資的大量資金。

Over the past two decades, our insurance business has generated $32 billion of after-tax
profits from underwriting, about 3.3 cents per dollar of sales after income tax. Meanwhile, our
float has grown from $46 billion to $171 billion. The float is likely to grow a bit over time and,
with intelligent underwriting (and some luck), has a reasonable prospect of being costless.

在過去的 20 年裡,我們的保險業務產生了 320 億美元的稅後承保利潤,約佔銷售額的 3。3 美分(扣除所得稅後)。 同時,我們的浮動資金從 460 億美元增加到 1,710 億美元。 隨著時間的推移,浮動資金可能會略有增長,並且憑藉明智的核保(以及一些運氣),有合理的希望實現無成本。


Berkshire Increases its Japanese Investments

波克夏增加對日本的投資

A small but important exception to our U.S.-based focus is our growing investment in
Japan.

我們以美國為中心的戰略的一個小但重要的例外是我們在日本不斷增長的投資。

It’s been almost six years since Berkshire began purchasing shares in five Japanese
companies that very successfully operate in a manner somewhat similar to Berkshire itself. The
five are (alphabetically) ITOCHU, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo. Each of these
large enterprises, in turn, owns interests in a vast array of businesses, many based in Japan but
others that operate throughout the world.

自波克夏開始購買五家日本公司的股票以來,已經過去了近六年,這些公司以與波克夏本身有些相似的方式非常成功地運營。 這五家公司是(按字母順序排列):伊藤忠商事 (ITOCHU)、丸紅 (Marubeni)、三菱 (Mitsubishi)、三井 (Mitsui) 和住友 (Sumitomo)。 這些大型企業中的每一家又擁有大量業務的權益,其中許多業務位於日本,但其他業務遍布全球。

Berkshire made its first purchases involving the five in July 2019. We simply looked at
their financial records and were amazed at the low prices of their stocks. As the years have
passed, our admiration for these companies has consistently grown. Greg has met many times
with them, and I regularly follow their progress. Both of us like their capital deployment, their
managements and their attitude in respect to their investors.

波克夏於 2019 年 7 月首次對這五家公司進行了購買。 我們只是查看了它們的財務記錄,並對其股票的低廉價格感到驚訝。 隨著時間的推移,我們對這些公司的欽佩之情一直在增長。 Greg 曾多次與他們會面,我經常關注他們的進展。 我們都喜歡他們的資本部署、他們的管理階層以及他們對待投資者的態度。

Each of the five companies increase dividends when appropriate, they repurchase their
shares when it is sensible to do so, and their top managers are far less aggressive in their
compensation programs than their U.S. counterparts.

這五家公司中的每一家都會在適當的時候增加股息,它們會在合理的情況下回購其股票,並且它們的頂級管理人員在薪酬計劃方面的積極性遠不如它們的美國同行。

Our holdings of the five are for the very long term, and we are committed to supporting
their boards of directors. From the start, we also agreed to keep Berkshire’s holdings below 10%
of each company’s shares. But, as we approached this limit, the five companies agreed to
moderately relax the ceiling. Over time, you will likely see Berkshire’s ownership of all five
increase somewhat.

我們對這五家公司的持股是為了非常長期的目標,並且我們致力於支持它們的董事會。 從一開始,我們也同意將波克夏對每家公司股份的持股比例保持在 10% 以下。 但是,當我們接近這個上限時,這五家公司同意適度放寬上限。 隨著時間的推移,各位可能會看到波克夏對所有五家公司的所有權略有增加。

At yearend, Berkshire’s aggregate cost (in dollars) was $13.8 billion and the market value
of our holdings totaled $23.5 billion.

在年底,波克夏的總成本(以美元計算)為 138 億美元,我們持股的市值總計 235 億美元。

Meanwhile, Berkshire has consistently – but not pursuant to any formula – increased its
yen-denominated borrowings. All are at fixed rates, no “floaters.” Greg and I have no view on
future foreign exchange rates and therefore seek a position approximating currency-neutrality.
We are required, however, under GAAP rules to regularly recognize in our earnings a calculation
of any gains or losses in the yen we have borrowed and, at yearend, had included $2.3 billion of
after-tax gains due to dollar strength of which $850 million occurred in 2024.

同時,波克夏一直在不斷地——但並非按照任何公式——增加其日元計價的借款。 所有借款均為固定利率,沒有「浮動利率」。 Greg 和我對未來的外匯匯率沒有任何看法,因此尋求一種接近貨幣中性的倉位。 然而,根據 GAAP 規則,我們需要在我們的收益中定期確認對我們借入的日元的任何收益或損失的計算,並且在年底,由於美元走強,我們包含了 23 億美元的稅後收益,其中 8。5 億美元發生在 2024 年。

I expect that Greg and his eventual successors will be holding this Japanese position for
many decades and that Berkshire will find other ways to work productively with the five
companies in the future.

我預計 Greg 和他的最終繼任者將在未來幾十年內持有這種日本倉位,並且波克夏將找到其他方法在未來與這五家公司高效地合作。

We like the current math of our yen-balanced strategy as well. As I write this, the annual
dividend income expected from the Japanese investments in 2025 will total about $812 million
and the interest cost of our yen-denominated debt will be about $135 million.

我們也喜歡我們日元平衡策略的當前計算方式。當我寫這篇文章時,預計 2025 年來自日本投資的年度股息收入總計約為 8。12 億美元,而我們日元計價債務的利息成本約為 1。35 億美元。

The Annual Gathering in Omaha

在奧馬哈舉行的年度聚會

I hope you will join us in Omaha on May 3rd. We are following a somewhat changed
schedule this year, but the basics remain the same. Our goal is that you get many of your
questions answered, that you connect with friends, and that you leave with a good impression of
Omaha. The city looks forward to your visits.

我希望各位能在 5 月 3 日在奧馬哈與我們會面。 我們今年遵循略有變化的時間表,但基本內容保持不變。 我們的目標是各位能得到許多問題的解答,與朋友聯繫,並對奧馬哈留下良好的印象。 這座城市期待各位的來訪。

We will have much the same group of volunteers to offer you a wide variety of Berkshire
products that will lighten your wallet and brighten your day. As usual, we will be open on Friday
from noon until 5 p.m. with lovable Squishmallows, underwear from Fruit of the Loom, Brooks
running shoes and a host of other items to tempt you.

我們將擁有與以往相同的志願者團隊,為各位提供各種波克夏產品,這些產品將減輕各位的錢包並點亮各位的一天。 像往常一樣,我們將在星期五中午至下午 5 點開放,提供可愛的 Squishmallows、來自 Fruit of the Loom 的內衣、Brooks 跑鞋以及其他各種誘惑各位的商品。

Again, we will have only one book for sale. Last year we featured Poor Charlie’s
Almanack and sold out – 5,000 copies disappeared before the close of business on Saturday.

同樣,我們只會出售一本書。 去年我們推出了《窮查理寶典》,並且售罄——5,000 本在星期六結束營業之前消失了。

This year we will offer 60 Years of Berkshire Hathaway. In 2015, I asked Carrie Sova,
who among her many duties managed much of the activity at the annual meeting, to try her hand
at putting together a light-hearted history of Berkshire. I gave her full reign to use her
imagination, and she quickly produced a book that blew me away with its ingenuity, contents and
design.

今年我們將提供《波克夏哈撒韋 60 年》。 2015 年,我要求 Carrie Sova 嘗試編寫一本關於波克夏的輕鬆歷史,她在她的許多職責中管理著年度會議的大部分活動。 我給予她充分的權力來運用她的想像力,她很快就製作了一本書,其獨創性、內容和設計讓我驚嘆不已。

Subsequently, Carrie left Berkshire to raise a family and now has three children. But each
summer, the Berkshire office force gets together to watch the Omaha Storm Chasers play
baseball against a Triple A opponent. I ask a few alums to join us, and Carrie usually comes with
her family. At this year’s event, I brazenly asked her if she would do a 60th Anniversary issue,
featuring Charlie’s photos, quotes and stories that have seldom been made public.

隨後,Carrie 離開了波克夏去撫養家庭,現在有三個孩子。 但是每年夏天,波克夏辦公室的工作人員都會聚在一起觀看奧馬哈風暴追逐者隊與三 A 級對手進行棒球比賽。 我邀請了一些校友加入我們,Carrie 通常會和她的家人一起來。 在今年的活動中,我厚顏無恥地問她是否願意製作一個 60 週年紀念版,其中包含查理的照片、引言和鮮為人知的故事。

Even with three young children to manage, Carrie immediately said “yes.” Consequently,
we will have 5,000 copies of the new book available for sale on Friday afternoon and from
7 a.m. to 4 p.m. on Saturday.

即使有三個年幼的孩子要照顧,Carrie 立即說「願意」。 因此,我們將在星期五下午和星期六早上 7 點至下午 4 點提供 5,000 本新書。

Carrie refused any payment for her extensive work on the new “Charlie” edition. I
suggested she and I co-sign 20 copies to be given to any shareholder contributing $5,000 to the
Stephen Center that serves homeless adults and children in South Omaha. The Kizer family,
beginning with Bill Kizer, Sr., my long-time friend and Carrie’s grandfather, have for decades
been assisting this worthy institution. Whatever is raised through the sale of the 20 autographed
books, I will match.

Carrie 拒絕為她在新「查理」版本上的大量工作支付任何費用。 我建議她和我共同簽署 20 本書,贈送給任何向 Stephen Center 捐款 5,000 美元的股東,該中心為南奧馬哈的無家可歸的成人和兒童提供服務。 Kizer 家族,從我的老朋友 Carrie 的祖父 Bill Kizer, Sr

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Becky Quick will cover our somewhat re-engineered gathering on Saturday. Becky
knows Berkshire like a book and always arranges interesting interviews with managers,
investors, shareholders and an occasional celebrity. She and her CNBC crew do a great job of
both transmitting our meetings worldwide and archiving much Berkshire-related material. Give
our director, Steve Burke, credit for the archive idea.

貝琪·奎克(Becky Quick)將在週六報導我們經過某種程度重新設計的聚會。貝琪(Becky)對波克夏瞭若指掌,總是安排對經理、投資者、股東和偶爾出現的名人進行有趣的訪談。她和她的 CNBC 團隊在向全球轉播我們的會議並存檔大量波克夏相關資料方面做得非常出色。將存檔的想法歸功於我們的導演史蒂夫·伯克。

We will not have a movie this year but rather will convene a bit earlier at 8 a.m. I will
make a few introductory remarks, and we will promptly get to the Q&A, alternating questions
between Becky and the audience.

今年我們不會放映電影,而是會稍微提前在早上 8 點舉行會議。我將做一些介紹性發言,然後我們將立即進入問答環節,貝琪和觀眾輪流提問。

Greg and Ajit will join me in answering questions and we will take a half-hour break at
10:30 a.m. When we reconvene at 11:00 a.m., only Greg will join me on stage. This year we will
disband at 1:00 p.m. but stay open for shopping in the exhibit area until 4:00 p.m.
You can find the full details regarding weekend activities on page 16. Note particularly
the always-popular Brooks run on Sunday morning. (I will be sleeping.)

葛瑞格和阿吉特將和我一起回答問題,我們將在上午 10:30 休息半小時。當我們在上午 11:00 恢復會議時,只有葛瑞格會和我一起在台上。今年我們將在下午 1:00 解散,但展覽區將開放購物至下午 4:00。您可以在第 16 頁找到有關週末活動的完整詳細資訊。特別注意週日早上一直很受歡迎的布魯克斯路跑活動。(我會睡覺。)

* * * * * * * * * * * *

My wise and good-looking sister, Bertie, of whom I wrote last year, will be attending the
meeting along with two of her daughters, both good-looking as well. Observers all agree that the
genes producing this dazzling result flow down only the female side of the family. (Sob.)
Bertie is now 91 and we talk regularly on Sundays using old-fashion telephones for
communications. We cover the joys of old age and discuss such exciting topics as the relative
merits of our canes. In my case, the utility is limited to the avoidance of falling flat on my face.

我聰明又好看的妹妹伯蒂(去年我寫過她)將和她的兩個女兒(也都很好看)一起參加會議。觀察家們都認為,產生這種令人眼花繚亂的結果的基因只在女性一方流傳。(嘆息。)伯蒂現在 91 歲了,我們每週日都使用老式電話進行交流。我們討論老年生活的樂趣,並討論我們手杖的相對優點等令人興奮的話題。就我而言,它的作用僅限於避免臉朝下摔倒。

But Bertie regularly one-ups me by asserting that she enjoys an additional benefit: When
a woman uses a cane, she tells me, men quit “hitting” on her. Bertie’s explanation is that the male
ego is such that little old ladies with canes simply aren’t an appropriate target. Presently, I have
no data to counter her assertion.

但伯蒂經常通過聲稱她享有額外的好處來勝過我:她告訴我,當一個女人使用手杖時,男人就不會「追求」她了。伯蒂的解釋是,男性的自尊心是如此之強,以至於拄著手杖的老太太根本不是一個合適的目標。目前,我沒有任何資料可以反駁她的說法。

But I have suspicions. At the meeting I can’t see much from the stage, and I would
appreciate it if attendees would keep an eye on Bertie. Let me know if the cane is really doing its
job. My bet is that she will be surrounded by males. For those of a certain age, the scene will
bring back memories of Scarlett O’Hara and her horde of male admirers in Gone with the Wind.

但我有所懷疑。在會議上,我從台上看不到太多東西,如果與會者能留意伯蒂,我將不勝感激。讓我知道手杖是否真的在發揮作用。我打賭她會被男人包圍。對於那些有一定年紀的人來說,這一幕會讓人想起思嘉·歐哈拉和她在《亂世佳人》中的一大群男性崇拜者。

巴菲特致股東函 2023

Charlie Munger – The Architect of Berkshire Hathaway  

Charlie Munger died on November 28, just 33 days before his 100th birthday.

Though born and raised in Omaha, he spent 80% of his life domiciled elsewhere. Consequently, it was not until 1959 when he was 35 that I first met him. In 1962, he decided that he should take up money management.

Three years later he told me – correctly! – that I had made a dumb decision in buying control of Berkshire. But, he assured me, since I had already made the move, he would tell me how to correct my mistake.

In what I next relate, bear in mind that Charlie and his family did not have a dime invested in the small investing partnership that I was then managing and whose money I had used for the Berkshire purchase. Moreover, neither of us expected that Charlie would ever own a share of Berkshire stock.

Nevertheless, Charlie, in 1965, promptly advised me: “Warren, forget about ever buying another company like Berkshire. But now that you control Berkshire, add to it wonderful businesses purchased at fair prices and give up buying fair businesses at wonderful prices. In other words, abandon everything you learned from your hero, Ben Graham. It works but only when practiced at small scale.” With much back-sliding I subsequently followed his instructions.

Many years later, Charlie became my partner in running Berkshire and, repeatedly, jerked me back to sanity when my old habits surfaced. Until his death, he continued in this role and together we, along with those who early on invested with us, ended up far better off than Charlie and I had ever dreamed possible.

In reality, Charlie was the “architect” of the present Berkshire, and I acted as the “general contractor” to carry out the day-by-day construction of his vision.

Charlie never sought to take credit for his role as creator but instead let me take the bows and receive the accolades. In a way his relationship with me was part older brother, part loving father. Even when he knew he was right, he gave me the reins, and when I blundered he never – never –reminded me of my mistake.

In the physical world, great buildings are linked to their architect while those who had poured the concrete or installed the windows are soon forgotten. Berkshire has become a great company. Though I have long been in charge of the construction crew; Charlie should forever be credited with being the architect.

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

致波克夏海瑟威公司股東:

Berkshire has more than three million shareholder accounts. I am charged with writing a letter every year that will be useful to this diverse and ever-changing group of owners, many of whom wish to learn more about their investment.

波克夏有超過三百萬的股東帳戶,我負責每年寫一封信,這封信對這樣一個多樣化且不斷變化的所有者群體來說很有用,其中許多人希望了解更多關於他們的投資資訊。

Charlie Munger, for decades my partner in managing Berkshire, viewed this obligation identically and would expect me to communicate with you this year in the regular manner. He and I were of one mind regarding our responsibilities to Berkshire shareholders.

查理·蒙格是我幾十年來管理波克夏的合作夥伴,他對這一項義務的看法與我是一致的,並希望我今年能以正常的方式與你們溝通。在對波克夏股東的責任問題上,他和我的看法一致。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Writers find it useful to picture the reader they seek, and often they are hoping to attract a mass audience. At Berkshire, we have a more limited target: investors who trust Berkshire with their savings without any expectation of resale (resembling in attitude people who save in order to buy a farm or rental property rather than people who prefer using their excess funds to purchase lottery tickets or “hot” stocks).

作家會發現讓讀者尋找具像化的描述很有幫助,他們往往希望吸引大眾讀者。在波克夏,我們有一個範圍有限的目標:那些信任波克夏,並將他們的積蓄託付給波克夏,且沒有預期將來會轉售這些股份的投資者(在態度上類似於那些希望透過儲蓄來購買農場或租售房產的人,而不是喜歡用多餘資金購買彩券或"熱門"股票的人)。

Over the years, Berkshire has attracted an unusual number of such “lifetime” shareholders and their heirs. We cherish their presence and believe they are entitled to hear every year both the good and bad news, delivered directly from their CEO and not from an investor-relations officer or communications consultant forever serving up optimism and syrupy mush.

多年來,波克夏吸引了大量這樣的"終身"股東及他們的後代。我們珍惜他們的存在,並認為他們有權每年聽到我們所傳達的好或壞的消息,這些消息直接來自他們的CEO,而不是由投資者顧問或永遠提供樂觀主義和糖衣砲彈的溝通顧問。

In visualizing the owners that Berkshire seeks, I am lucky to have the perfect mental model, my sister, Bertie. Let me introduce her.

在知道波克夏的股東是什麼樣的人後,我很幸運有一個完美的心理模型,我的妹妹Bertie,讓我來介紹她。

For openers, Bertie is smart, wise and likes to challenge my thinking. We have never, however, had a shouting match or anything close to a ruptured relationship. We never will.

首先,Bertie聰明、睿智,喜歡挑戰我的思考方式。但我們從未有過大吵大鬧, 關係也沒有出現過裂痕,以後也不會。

Furthermore, Bertie, and her three daughters as well, have a large portion of their savings in Berkshire shares. Their ownership spans decades, and every year Bertie will read what I have to say. My job is to anticipate her questions and give her honest answers.

此外,Bertie和她的三個女兒都有很大一部分積蓄購入了波克夏的股票。她們的持股時間跨度長達數十年,每年Bertie都會閱讀我寫的信。我的工作就是預測她的問題,並給她誠實的答案。

Bertie, like most of you, understands many accounting terms, but she is not ready for a CPA exam. She follows business news – reading four newspapers daily – but doesn’t consider herself an economic expert. She is sensible – very sensible – instinctively knowing that pundits should always be ignored. After all, if she could reliably predict tomorrow’s winners, would she freely share her valuable insights and thereby increase competitive buying? That would be like finding gold and then handing a map to the neighbors showing its location.

Bertie像大多數人一樣,了解許多會計術語,但她還沒有準備好參加CPA考試。她關注商業新聞,每天閱讀四份報紙,但不認為自己是經濟專家。她很理智,可以說非常理智,本能地知道專家永遠應該被忽視。畢竟,如果可以靠預測明天而獲勝的人,她會隨意分享她的寶貴見解,並增加競爭性購買嗎?這就好比找到了金子,然後把標示金子位置的地圖遞給鄰居。

Bertie understands the power – for good or bad – of incentives, the weaknesses of humans, the “tells” that can be recognized when observing human behavior. She knows who is “selling” and who can be trusted. In short, she is nobody’s fool.

Bertie了解激勵的力量(無論好壞)、人類的弱點以及觀察人類行為時可以識別的"資訊"。她知道誰在"推銷" 誰可以信任。簡而言之,她不會被任何人愚弄。

So, what would interest Bertie this year?

那麼,Bertie今年會對什麼感興趣呢?

Operating Results, Fact and Fiction

經營業績,事實與虛構

Let’s begin with the numbers. The official annual report begins on K-1 and extends for 124 pages. It is filled with a vast amount of information – some important, some trivial.

讓我們從數字開始。官方年度報告從K-1報告開始,長達124頁。它充滿了大量的資訊有些重要,有些微不足道。

Among its disclosures many owners, along with financial reporters, will focus on page K-72. There, they will find the proverbial “bottom line” labeled “Net earnings (loss).” The numbers read $90 billion for 2021, ($23 billion) for 2022 and $96 billion for 2023.

在其披露中,許多所有者以及財經記者將關注K-72頁。在那裡,他們會找到眾所周知的底線,標有淨收益(虧損)。這些數字顯示,2021年的淨收益為900億美元,2022年為230億美元,2023年為960億美元。

What in the world is going on?

這到底是怎麼回事?

You seek guidance and are told that the procedures for calculating these “earnings” are promulgated by a sober and credentialed Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”), mandated by a dedicated and hard-working Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and audited by the world-class professionals at Deloitte & Touche (“D&T”). On page K-67, D&T pulls no punches: “In our opinion, the financial statements . . . . . present fairly, in all material respects (italics mine), the financial position of the Company . . . . . and the results of its operations . . . . . for each of the three years in the period ended December 31, 2023 . . . . .”

你在尋求指導,並被告知計算這些「收益」的程序是由一個清醒和有資質的財務會計準則委員會(以下簡稱「FASB」)頒布的,由一個敬業和勤奮的美國證券交易委員會(以下簡稱「SEC」)授權,並由德勤(以下簡稱「D&T」)的世界級專業人士進行審計。在K-67頁上,德勤毫不留情:「我們認為,財務報表在所有重大方面(斜體字)公平地呈現公司的財務狀況及其營運結果,截至20231231日止三年中的每一年。

So sanctified, this worse-than-useless “net income” figure quickly gets transmitted throughout the world via the internet and media. All parties believe they have done their job – and, legally, they have.

如此神聖化之後,這個沒有用處的"淨收入"數字很快就透過網路和媒體傳遍了全世界。各方都認為他們已經完成了自己的工作以法律層面,他們的確完成了。

We, however, are left uncomfortable. At Berkshire, our view is that “earnings” should be a sensible concept that Bertie will find somewhat useful – but only as a starting point – in evaluating a business. Accordingly, Berkshire also reports to Bertie and you what we call “operating earnings.” Here is the story they tell: $27.6 billion for 2021; $30.9 billion for 2022 and $37.4 billion for 2023.

然而,我們仍感到不適。在波克夏,我們的觀點是「收益」應該是一個Bertie會發現有些用處的合理概念,但只是作為評估企業的起點。因此,波克夏也向Bertie和你報告了我們所稱的「經營收益」。這是他們所講述的故事:2021年為276億美元;2022年為309億美元,2023年為374億美元。

The primary difference between the mandated figures and the ones Berkshire prefers is that we exclude unrealized capital gains or losses that at times can exceed $5 billion a day. Ironically, our preference was pretty much the rule until 2018, when the “improvement” was mandated. Galileo’s experience, several centuries ago, should have taught us not to mess with mandates from on high. But, at Berkshire, we can be stubborn.

波克夏所偏好的規定數字與強制規定數字之間的主要差異在於,我們排除了有時可能超過每天50億美元的未實現資本利得或損失。諷刺的是,我們的「偏好」直到2018年才基本上成為規則,當時才被強制規定的「改進」所取代。幾個世紀前,伽利略的經驗本應教導我們,不要隨意改變來自高層的規定。但在波克夏,我們可是很固執的。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Make no mistake about the significance of capital gains: I expect them to be a very important component of Berkshire’s value accretion during the decades ahead. Why else would we commit huge dollar amounts of your money (and Bertie’s) to marketable equities just as I have been doing with my own funds throughout my investing lifetime?

資本利得的重要性毋庸置疑:我預計在未來幾十年,它們將是波克夏價值成長的非常重要組成部分。否則,我們為什麼要將你(Bertie’s)的巨額資金,就像我投資生涯中自己的資金一樣,投資於市場上的股票?

I can’t remember a period since March 11, 1942 – the date of my first stock purchase – that I have not had a majority of my net worth in equities, U.S.-based equities. And so far, so good. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 100 on that fateful day in 1942 when I “pulled the trigger.” I was down about $5 by the time school was out. Soon, things turned around and now that index hovers around 38,000. America has been a terrific country for investors. All they have needed to do is sit quietly, listening to no one.

我不記得自1942311日(我第一次買股票的日子)以來的任何一段時間,我沒有將大部分淨資產投入到股票中,即使是美國的股票。到目前為止,一切都很好。1942年那個決定命運的那一天,我"扣下板機"的那一刻,美國道瓊工業平均指數跌破了100 點。放學時,我損失了大約5美元。很快,情況發生了逆轉,現在該指數徘徊在38000 點左右。對投資者來說,美國一直是個了不起的國家。他們所需要做的就是靜靜地坐著,不聽任何人的話。

It is more than silly, however, to make judgments about Berkshire’s investment value based on “earnings” that incorporate the capricious day-by-day and, yes, even year-by-year movements of the stock market. As Ben Graham taught me, “In the short run the market acts as a voting machine; in the long run it becomes a weighing machine.”

然而,根據「收益」來判斷波克夏的投資價值是非常愚蠢的,因為「收益」包含了股票市場變幻莫測的日日夜夜,甚至包含了股市每年的波動。正如Ben Graham教導我的,"從短期來看,市場就像一台投票機;從長期來看,它就成了一台稱重機"

What We Do

我們做了什麼

Our goal at Berkshire is simple: We want to own either all or a portion of businesses that enjoy good economics that are fundamental and enduring. Within capitalism, some businesses will flourish for a very long time while others will prove to be sinkholes. It’s harder than you would think to predict which will be the winners and losers. And those who tell you they know the answer are usually either self-delusional or snake-oil salesmen.

我們在波克夏的目標很簡單:我們希望擁全部或部分經濟效益良好、基本且持久的企業。在資本主義中,有些企業會長期蓬勃發展,而有些則會被證明是個「無底洞」。要預測哪些企業會成為贏家或輸家,會比你想像的困難得多。那些聲稱他們知道答案的人要不是自欺欺人,就是江湖郎中(推銷員)

At Berkshire, we particularly favor the rare enterprise that can deploy additional capital at high returns in the future. Owning only one of these companies – and simply sitting tight – can deliver wealth almost beyond measure. Even heirs to such a holding can – ugh! – sometimes live a lifetime of leisure.

在波克夏,我們特別青睞那些未來能夠以高回報率投入額外資本的稀有企業,擁有一家這樣的公司,然後靜靜地坐著,就可以創造無法估量的財富,甚至是持有者的繼承人有時也可以過著一輩子的悠閒生活。

We also hope these favored businesses are run by able and trustworthy managers, though that is a more difficult judgment to make, however, and Berkshire has had its share of disappointments.

我們也希望這些受青睞的企業由能幹且值得信賴的管理者經營,儘管這更難判斷。波克夏在這方面也有令人失望的地方。

In 1863, Hugh McCulloch, the first Comptroller of the United States, sent a letter to all national banks. His instructions included this warning: “Never deal with a rascal under the expectation that you can prevent him from cheating you.” Many bankers who thought they could “manage” the rascal problem have learned the wisdom of Mr. McCulloch’s advice – and I have as well. People are not that easy to read. Sincerity and empathy can easily be faked. That is as true now as it was in 1863.

1863年,美國第一任主計長(ComptrollerHugh McCulloch給所有國家銀行寫了一封信。他的指示中包括這樣的警告:「永遠不要和流氓打交道時,期望阻止他欺騙你。」許多自認為可以「管理」這個無賴問題的銀行家,已經從McCulloch的建議中領悟到了智慧,我也是如此。人不是那麼容易看穿的,真誠和同情很容易偽造,現在和1863年一樣。

This combination of the two necessities I’ve described for acquiring businesses has for long been our goal in purchases and, for a while, we had an abundance of candidates to evaluate. If I missed one – and I missed plenty – another always came along.

長期以來,我在尋找收購目標時追求兩個關鍵條件的組合,有一段時間,我們有大量的候選人需要評估,如果我錯過了一個——而我錯過了很多個——另一個總會出現。

Those days are long behind us; size did us in, though increased competition for purchases was also a factor.

但那些日子早已過去;規模讓我們陷入困境,同時收購競爭加劇也是一個因素。

Berkshire now has – by far – the largest GAAP net worth recorded by any American business. Record operating income and a strong stock market led to a yearend figure of $561 billion. The total GAAP net worth for the other 499 S&P companies – a who’s who of American business – was $8.9 trillion in 2022. (The 2023 number for the S&P has not yet been tallied but is unlikely to materially exceed $9.5 trillion.)

目前,波克夏的GAAP(美國通用會計準則)淨資產是美國企業中最高的,創紀錄的營業利潤和強勁的股市使波克夏的年末淨資產達到5,610億美元。2022年,標普500中其他499家公司的淨資產規模為8.9兆美元。(2023年的數字尚未統計,但不太可能大幅超過9.5兆美元。)

By this measure, Berkshire now occupies nearly 6% of the universe in which it operates. Doubling our huge base is simply not possible within, say, a five-year period, particularly because we are highly averse to issuing shares (an act that immediately juices net worth).

按照這項衡量標準,波克夏海瑟威目前佔了近6%的份額。在五年內想要讓我們龐大的基數翻倍是不可能的,特別是因為我們非常反對發行股票(這行為會立即增加淨值)。

There remain only a handful of companies in this country capable of truly moving the needle at Berkshire, and they have been endlessly picked over by us and by others. Some we can value; some we can’t. And, if we can, they have to be attractively priced. Outside the U.S., there are essentially no candidates that are meaningful options for capital deployment at Berkshire. All in all, we have no possibility of eye-popping performance.

在這個國家,只有少數幾家公司有能力真正改變波克夏的發展,它們已不斷被我們和其他人反覆挑選。有些我們可以評估,有些我們不能。而且,如果我們可以的話,它們的價格必須要有吸引力。在美國以外的地方,波克夏海瑟威基本上沒有對資本配置有意義的候選者。總而言之,我們不可能有令人瞠目結舌的成績。

 

Nevertheless, managing Berkshire is mostly fun and always interesting. On the positive side, after 59 years of assemblage, the company now owns either a portion or 100% of various businesses that, on a weighted basis, have somewhat better prospects than exist at most large American companies. By both luck and pluck, a few huge winners have emerged from a great many dozens of decisions. And we now have a small cadre of long-time managers who never muse about going elsewhere and who regard 65 as just another birthday.

儘管如此,管理波克夏然是一件有趣的事情,而且總是有趣的。積極的一面是,經過59年的整合,我們現在擁有各種業務的一部分或100%,按加權計算,這些業務的前景略好於大多數美國大公司。憑藉著運氣和勇氣,從大量的數十個決定中湧現出幾個巨大的贏家。我們現在有一小群長期擔任經理的人,他們從來不會考慮去其他地方,他們把65歲僅僅視為另一個生日。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Berkshire benefits from an unusual constancy and clarity of purpose. While we emphasize treating our employees, communities and suppliers well – who wouldn’t wish to do so? – our allegiance will always be to our country and our shareholders. We never forget that, though your money is comingled with ours, it does not belong to us.

波克夏受益於不尋常的堅定且清晰的目標。雖然我們強調善待我們的員工、社區和供應商——誰不希望這樣做?但我們始終忠於國家和我們的股東。我們永遠不會忘記,儘管你的錢和我們的錢在一起,但它並不屬於我們。

With that focus, and with our present mix of businesses, Berkshire should do a bit better than the average American corporation and, more important, should also operate with materially less risk of permanent loss of capital. Anything beyond “slightly better,” though, is wishful thinking. This modest aspiration wasn’t the case when Bertie went all-in on Berkshire – but it is now.

憑藉這種專注,以及我們目前的業務組合,波克夏應該比一般的美國公司做得好一點,更重要的是,應以大大降低的在營運中的資本永久減損的風險。不過,「略好」以外的任何事情都是一廂情願,當Bertie全力以赴投資波克夏時,這樣的願望還沒有實現——但現在已經實現了。

Our Not-So-Secret Weapon

我們不那麼秘密的武器

Occasionally, markets and/or the economy will cause stocks and bonds of some large and fundamentally good businesses to be strikingly mispriced. Indeed, markets can – and will – unpredictably seize up or even vanish as they did for four months in 1914 and for a few days in 2001. If you believe that American investors are now more stable than in the past, think back to September 2008. Speed of communication and the wonders of technology facilitate instant worldwide paralysis, and we have come a long way since smoke signals. Such instant panics won’t happen often – but they will happen.

偶爾,市場和/或經濟會導致一些基本面良好的大型企業的股票和債券出現明顯錯誤定價。的確,市場能夠也必將在不可預測地情況下失靈甚至消失,就像1914年的4個月和2001年的幾天一樣。如果你認為美國投資者現在比過去更穩定,那就回想一下20089月的情況。通訊的速度和技術的奇蹟使世界範圍內的即時癱瘓成為可能,自從煙霧信號以來,我們已經走了很長一段路,這種突然的恐慌不會經常發生,但還是會發生。

Berkshire’s ability to immediately respond to market seizures with both huge sums and certainty of performance may offer us an occasional large-scale opportunity. Though the stock market is massively larger than it was in our early years, today’s active participants are neither more emotionally stable nor better taught than when I was in school. For whatever reasons, markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young. The casino now resides in many homes and daily tempts the occupants.

波克夏能夠以巨額資金和業績的確定性迅速應對市場動盪,這可能偶爾會給我們大規模機會。雖然股票市場比我們早年大得多,但今天的活躍市場參與者既不比我在學校時更穩定,也不比我在學校時受過更好的教育。不管出於什麼原因,現在的市場表現出比我年輕時更像賭場,賭場現在存在於許多家庭中,每天都在誘惑居民。

One fact of financial life should never be forgotten. Wall Street – to use the term in its figurative sense – would like its customers to make money, but what truly causes its denizens’ juices to flow is feverish activity. At such times, whatever foolishness can be marketed will be vigorously marketed – not by everyone but always by someone.

經濟活動中的一個事實永遠不應該被忘記。華爾街——用這個詞的比喻意義來說——希望它的客戶賺錢,但真正讓它的客戶熱血沸騰的是狂熱的活動。在這種時候,任何一樣可以被推銷的愚蠢的東西都會被大力推銷不是每個人都這麼做,但總是有人這麼做。

Occasionally, the scene turns ugly. The politicians then become enraged; the most flagrant perpetrators of misdeeds slip away, rich and unpunished; and your friend next door becomes bewildered, poorer and sometimes vengeful. Money, he learns, has trumped morality.

有些時候,場面會變得醜陋。政客們變的被激怒了;最明目張膽的犯罪者跑掉了,逍遙法外;而你隔壁的朋友會變得困惑、貧窮,有時還想要報復。他了解到,金錢壓倒了道德。

One investment rule at Berkshire has not and will not change: Never risk permanent loss of capital. Thanks to the American tailwind and the power of compound interest, the arena in which we operate has been – and will be – rewarding if you make a couple of good decisions during a lifetime and avoid serious mistakes.

波克夏的一項投資規則從未改變也不會改變:永遠不要冒資本永久性損失的風險。由於美國的順風和複利的力量,如果你在一生中做出了幾個正確的決定,避免了嚴重的錯誤,那麼我們經營的領域將會是有益的,而且將會得到回報。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

I believe Berkshire can handle financial disasters of a magnitude beyond any heretofore experienced. This ability is one we will not relinquish. When economic upsets occur, as they will, Berkshire’s goal will be to function as an asset to the country – just as it was in a very minor way in 2008-9 – and to help extinguish the financial fire rather than to be among the many companies that, inadvertently or otherwise, ignited the conflagration.

我相信波克夏公司能夠應對前所未有的金融災難,我們不會放棄這種能力。當經濟動盪發生時,波克夏的目標將是成為國家的一筆資產——就像它在2008- 2009年以一種非常微小的方式發揮作用一樣並幫助撲滅金融大火,而不是成為眾多無意間或有意點燃大火的公司之一。

Our goal is realistic. Berkshire’s strength comes from its Niagara of diverse earnings delivered after interest costs, taxes and substantial charges for depreciation and amortization (“EBITDA” is a banned measurement at Berkshire). We also operate with minimal requirements for cash, even if the country encounters a prolonged period of global economic weakness, fear and near-paralysis.

我們的目標是現實的。波克夏的優勢來自於它在扣除利息成本、稅收和大量折舊及攤銷費用(「EBITDA」在波克夏是被禁止使用的衡量標準)後交付的多樣化的收益。即使國家遭遇長期的經濟疲軟,恐懼甚至幾乎癱瘓,我們也以最低的現金要求展開業務。

Berkshire does not currently pay dividends, and its share repurchases are 100% discretionary. Annual debt maturities are never material.

波克夏目前不支付股息,股票回購是100%的自由裁量權。年度債務到期日從來都不重要。

Your company also holds a cash and U.S. Treasury bill position far in excess of what conventional wisdom deems necessary. During the 2008 panic, Berkshire generated cash from operations and did not rely in any manner on commercial paper, bank lines or debt markets. We did not predict the time of an economic paralysis but we were always prepared for one.

你們的公司持有的現金和美國國債數量也遠遠超出了傳統觀點所認為的必要水準。在2008年的恐慌中,波克夏從營運中獲得現金,沒有以任何方式依賴商業票據、銀行貸款或債券市場。我們沒有預測到發生經濟危機的準確時間,但我們總是為此做好準備。

Extreme fiscal conservatism is a corporate pledge we make to those who have joined us in ownership of Berkshire. In most years – indeed in most decades – our caution will likely prove to be unneeded behavior – akin to an insurance policy on a fortress-like building thought to be fireproof. But Berkshire does not want to inflict permanent financial damage – quotational shrinkage for extended periods can’t be avoided – on Bertie or any of the individuals who have trusted us with their savings.

極端的財政保守主義是我們對那些加入我們波克夏所有權人所做的企業承諾。在大多數年份裡——實際上是在漫長的幾十年裡——我們的謹慎很可能被證明是不必要的行為——就像對一座被認為是防火的堡壘式建築的保險政策一樣。但波克夏並不想對Bertie或任何信任我們的個人造成永久性的財務損失——長期的收益縮水是無法避免的。

Berkshire is built to last.

波克夏經久不衰。

Non-controlled Businesses That Leave Us Comfortable

讓我們感到舒適的非受控企業

Last year I mentioned two of Berkshire’s long-duration partial-ownership positions – Coca-Cola and American Express. These are not huge commitments like our Apple position. Each only accounts for 4-5% of Berkshire’s GAAP net worth. But they are meaningful assets and also illustrate our thought processes.

去年我提到,波克夏長期持有兩隻股票,可口可樂和美國運通。這兩家公司不像我們對蘋果的持股那麼大,每隻股票只佔波克夏公認會計準則淨值的4-5%。但它們是有價值的資產,也說明了我們的想法。

American Express began operations in 1850, and Coca-Cola was launched in an Atlanta drug store in 1886. (Berkshire is not big on newcomers.) Both companies tried expanding into unrelated areas over the years and both found little success in these attempts. In the past – but definitely not now – both were even mismanaged.

美國運通於1850年開始運營,可口可樂於1886年在亞特蘭大的一家藥局誕生。(波克夏不太喜歡新公司)。多年來,兩家公司都曾嘗試向不相關的領域擴張,但沒有任何成功。在過去 但肯定不是現在 兩家公司甚至都出現了管理不善的局面。

But each was hugely successful in its base business, reshaped here and there as conditions called for. And, crucially, their products “traveled.” Both Coke and AMEX became recognizable names worldwide as did their core products, and the consumption of liquids and the need for unquestioned financial trust are timeless essentials of our world.

但兩家公司都在其主營業務項目上取得了巨大成功,並根據情況在各地進行了重組。而且,最重要的是,他們的產品「走向世界」。可口可樂和美國運通的核心產品都在世界各地家喻戶曉,而充足的現金流和對毋庸置疑的金融信任的需求是我們這個世界永恆的必需品。

During 2023, we did not buy or sell a share of either AMEX or Coke – extending our own Rip Van Winkle slumber that has now lasted well over two decades. Both companies again rewarded our inaction last year by increasing their earnings and dividends. Indeed, our share of AMEX earnings in 2023 considerably exceeded the $1.3 billion cost of our long-ago purchase.

2023年期間,我們沒有買賣美國運通或可口可樂的股票,持續沉睡了20年之後,局勢早已時過境遷。去年,這兩家公司再次透過增加獲利和分紅來獎勵我們的無動於衷。事實上,在2023年,我們從美國運通獲得的收益份額,已經大大超過了我們很久以前購買的13億美元成本。

Both AMEX and Coke will almost certainly increase their dividends in 2024 – about 16% in the case of AMEX – and we will most certainly leave our holdings untouched throughout the year. Could I create a better worldwide business than these two enjoy? As Bertie will tell you: “No way.”

2024 年,美國運通和可口可樂幾乎肯定都會增加股息,其中美國運通約為16%,我們肯定會在這一年中保持我們的持股整年不變,難道我能創造出比這兩家公司更好的全球業務嗎?正如Bertie會告訴你,"不可能"

Though Berkshire did not purchase shares of either company in 2023, your indirect ownership of both Coke and AMEX increased a bit last year because of share repurchases we made at Berkshire. Such repurchases work to increase your participation in every asset that Berkshire owns. To this obvious but often overlooked truth, I add my usual caveat: All stock repurchases should be price-dependent. What is sensible at a discount to business-value becomes stupid if done at a premium.

雖然波克夏在2023 年沒有增持這兩家公司的股票,但由於我們在波克夏進行了股票回購,去年你在可口可樂和美國運通的間接所有權略有增加。這種回購有助於增加您對撥 刻下所擁有的每項資產的參與。對於這個顯而易見但經常被忽視的事實,我還要加上我一貫的告誡:所有的股票回購都應該取決於價格。如果以高於商業價值的價格回購股票,那麼明智的做法就會變得愚蠢。

The lesson from Coke and AMEX? When you find a truly wonderful business, stick with it. Patience pays, and one wonderful business can offset the many mediocre decisions that are inevitable.

可口可樂和美國運通給我們的教訓是什麼?當你發現一家真正出色的企業時,請堅持投資下去。耐心總是有回報的,選擇一個出色的企業可以對沖掉許多不可避免的平庸決策。

 

* * * * * * * * * * * *

This year, I would like to describe two other investments that we expect to maintain indefinitely. Like Coke and AMEX, these commitments are not huge relative to our resources. They are worthwhile, however, and we were able to increase both positions during 2023.

今年,我想介紹另外兩項我們計劃將無限期維持的投資。就像可口可樂和美國運通一樣,相對於我們擁有的資源而言,這些投資投入並不巨大。但它們是值得的,而且我們能夠在2023 年增加這兩項投資的部位。

At yearend, Berkshire owned 27.8% of Occidental Petroleum’s common shares and also owned warrants that, for more than five years, give us the option to materially increase our ownership at a fixed price. Though we very much like our ownership, as well as the option, Berkshire has no interest in purchasing or managing Occidental. We particularly like its vast oil and gas holdings in the United States, as well as its leadership in carbon-capture initiatives, though the economic feasibility of this technique has yet to be proven. Both of these activities are very much in our country’s interest.

截至年底,波克夏持有西方石油公司27.8%的普通股,同時也持有認股權證,在五年多的時間裡,我們可以選擇以固定價格大幅增持股份。 雖然我們非常喜歡我們的所有權和選擇權,但波克夏無意收購或管理西方石油公司。我們尤其看好西方石油公司在美國擁有的大量石油和天然氣資產,以及它在碳捕集方面的領先地位,儘管這種技術的經濟可行性仍有待驗證。這兩項活動都非常符合我們的國家利益。

Not so long ago, the U.S. was woefully dependent on foreign oil, and carbon capture had no meaningful constituency. Indeed, in 1975, U.S. production was eight million barrels of oil-equivalent per day (“BOEPD”), a level far short of the country’s needs. From the favorable energy position that facilitated the U.S. mobilization in World War II, the country had retreated to become heavily dependent on foreign – potentially unstable – suppliers. Further declines in oil production were predicted along with future increases in usage.

不久前,美國還嚴重依賴外國石油,而碳捕捉技術也沒有重要的支持者。事實上,1975 年,美國的石油產量為每天800 萬桶石油當量("BOEPD"),此產量遠遠無法滿足國家的需求。美國的能源狀況曾在第二次世界大戰中為美國的動員提供了有利條件,但現在,變得嚴重依賴外國有潛在不穩定性的供應商。據預測,石油產量將可能進一步下降,伴隨著未來石油用量的增加。

For a long time, the pessimism appeared to be correct, with production falling to five million BOEPD by 2007. Meanwhile, the U.S. government created a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (“SPR”) in 1975 to alleviate – though not come close to eliminating – this erosion of American self-sufficiency.

長期以來,這種悲觀情緒似乎是正確的,到2007年,產量下降到500萬桶/日。同時,美國政府於1975年建立了戰略石油儲備(「SPR」),以緩解美國自給自足能力受到侵蝕的問題,儘管這一問題無法完全消除。

And then – Hallelujah! – shale economics became feasible in 2011, and our energy dependency ended. Now, U.S. production is more than 13 million BOEPD, and OPEC no longer has the upper hand. Occidental itself has annual U.S. oil production that each year comes close to matching the entire inventory of the SPR. Our country would be very – very – nervous today if domestic production had remained at five million BOEPD, and it found itself hugely dependent on non-U.S. sources. At that level, the SPR would have been emptied within months if foreign oil became unavailable.

然後,哈利路亞!頁岩經濟在2011年變得可行,我們對能源的依賴結束了。現在,美國的石油產量已超過1,300萬桶/日,OPEC不再佔上風。西方石油公司在美國的石油年產量每年都接近SPR的全部庫存。如果美國國內的石油產量一直維持在500萬桶/日的水平,並且嚴重依賴非美國石油來源,那麼我們國家的資源如今就會非常非常緊張。從這個水準來看,如果外國石油供應不上,那麼SPR在幾個月內就會被清空。

Under Vicki Hollub’s leadership, Occidental is doing the right things for both its country and its owners. No one knows what oil prices will do over the next month, year, or decade. But Vicki does know how to separate oil from rock, and that’s an uncommon talent, valuable to her shareholders and to her country.

Vicki Hollub(西方石油總裁兼CEO)的領導下,西方石油正在為美國和股東做正確的事情。沒有人知道未來一個月、一年或十年油價會如何變動。但Vicki確實知道如何將石油和岩石分開,這是一種非同尋常的才能,對她的股東和她的國家都很有價值。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Additionally, Berkshire continues to hold its passive and long-term interest in five very large Japanese companies, each of which operates in a highly-diversified manner somewhat similar to the way Berkshire itself is run. We increased our holdings in all five last year after Greg Abel and I made a trip to Tokyo to talk with their managements.

此外,波克夏繼續長期被動地持有日本五大商社股份,每家公司的經營方式都高度多元化,與波克夏本身的經營方式有些類似。去年,Greg Abel(波克夏副董事長)和我前往東京與這五家公司的管理層交談後,我們增持了這五家公司的股票。

Berkshire now owns about 9% of each of the five. (A minor point: Japanese companies calculate outstanding shares in a manner different from the practice in the U.S.) Berkshire has also pledged to each company that it will not purchase shares that will take our holdings beyond 9.9%. Our cost for the five totals ¥1.6 trillion, and the yearend market value of the five was ¥2.9 trillion. However, the yen has weakened in recent years and our yearend unrealized gain in dollars was 61% or $8 billion.

目前,波克夏分別持有這五家公司約9%的股份。(一個小問題是:日本公司計算流通股的方式與美國不同)波克夏也向每家公司承諾,不會購買超過9.9%的股份。我們對這五家公司的投資成本共1.6兆日圓,五家公司的年末市值達2.9兆日圓。然而,由於近年來日圓走軟,我們年底未實現的美元收益為61%,即80億美元。

Neither Greg nor I believe we can forecast market prices of major currencies. We also don’t believe we can hire anyone with this ability. Therefore, Berkshire has financed most of its Japanese position with the proceeds from ¥1.3 trillion of bonds. This debt has been very well-received in Japan, and I believe Berkshire has more yen-denominated debt outstanding than any other American company. The weakened yen has produced a yearend gain for Berkshire of $1.9 billion, a sum that, pursuant to GAAP rules, has periodically been recognized in income over the 2020-23 period.

Greg和我都不相信我們能預測主要貨幣的市場價格,我們也不相信能僱用有這種能力的人才。因此,波克夏透過發行1.3兆日圓債券為其在日本的大部分部位提供資金。這些債券在日本很受歡迎,我相信波克夏的未償日圓債務比其他美國公司都要多。日圓貶值為波克夏帶來了19億美元的年終收益,根據美國通用會計(GAAP)準則,這筆收益將定期計入2020-23年期間的收益。

In certain important ways, all five companies – Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo – follow shareholder-friendly policies that are much superior to those customarily practiced in the U.S. Since we began our Japanese purchases, each of the five has reduced the number of its outstanding shares at attractive prices.

在某些重要方面,伊藤忠商事、丸紅、三菱、三井和住友這五家公司都遵循著對股東友善的政策,這比美國的慣例要好得多。自從我們開始收購日本股票以來,這五家公司都以具有吸引力的價格減少了流通股的數量。

Meanwhile, the managements of all five companies have been far less aggressive about their own compensation than is typical in the United States. Note as well that each of the five is applying only about 13 of its earnings to dividends. The large sums the five retain are used both to build their many businesses and, to a lesser degree, to repurchase shares. Like Berkshire, the five companies are reluctant to issue shares.

同時,這五家公司的管理階層對自身報酬的要求遠不如美國公司那麼激進。還要注意的是,這五家公司每家都只將大約1/3的收益用於分紅。這五家公司留存的巨額資金既用於建立其眾多業務,也在較小程度上用於回購股票。與波克夏一樣,這五家公司也不願發行股票。

An additional benefit for Berkshire is the possibility that our investment may lead to opportunities for us to partner around the world with five large, well-managed and well-respected companies. Their interests are far more broad than ours. And, on their side, the Japanese CEOs have the comfort of knowing that Berkshire will always possess huge liquid resources that can be instantly available for such partnerships, whatever their size may be.

波克夏得到的另一個好處是,我們的投資有可能為我們帶來在全球範圍內與五家管理完善、備受尊敬的大公司合作的機會,他們的利益關係網絡比我們廣泛得多。而且,日本公司的執行長們也很欣慰地知道,波克夏將始終擁有龐大的流動資源,無論這些合作夥伴的規模有多大,都可以立即獲得這些資源。

Our Japanese purchases began on July 4, 2019. Given Berkshire’s present size, building positions through open-market purchases takes a lot of patience and an extended period of “friendly” prices. The process is like turning a battleship. That is an important disadvantage which we did not face in our early days at Berkshire.

我們從201974日開始買日本股票。鑑於波克夏目前的規模,透過公開市場購買建立頭寸需要極大的耐心和較長時間的「友好」價格期。這個過程就像讓一艘戰艦轉彎,這是波克夏早期沒有遇到的重要劣勢。

The Scorecard in 2023

2023年記分卡

Every quarter we issue a press release that reports our summarized operating earnings (or loss) in a manner similar to what is shown below. Here is the full-year compilation:

我們每季都會發布新聞稿,以類似於下圖的方式報告我們的營運收益(或虧損)總結情況。以下是全年總結:

 

(in $ millions)

 

2023              2022

Insurance-underwriting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 5,428        $       (30)

Insurance-investment income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

     9,567             6,484

Railroad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

     5,087             5,946

Utilities and energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

     2,331             3,904

Other businesses and miscellaneous items . . . . . . .

14,937             14,549

Operating earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$37,350         $30,853

At Berkshire’s annual gathering on May 6, 2023, I presented the first quarter’s results which had been released early that morning. I followed with a short summary of the outlook for the full year: (1) most of our non-insurance businesses faced lower earnings in 2023; (2) that decline would be cushioned by decent results at our two largest non-insurance businesses, BNSF and Berkshire Hathaway Energy (“BHE”) which, combined, had accounted for more than 30% of operating earnings in 2022; (3) our investment income was certain to materially grow because the huge U.S. Treasury bill position held by Berkshire had finally begun to pay us far more than the pittance we had been receiving and (4) insurance would likely do well, both because its underwriting earnings are not correlated to earnings elsewhere in the economy and, beyond that, property-casualty insurance prices had strengthened.

Insurance came through as expected. I erred, however, in my expectations for both BNSF and BHE. Let’s take a look at each.

202356日波克夏的年度股東大會上,我介紹了當天一早發布的第一季業績。隨後,我簡短地總結了全年的展望:

12023年,我們大多數非保險業務的獲利都將下降;

2)我們最大的兩家非保險業務,鐵路業務(BNSF)和能源業務(BHE)的良好業績將緩解這一下降,這兩家公司在2022年合計佔營業收入的30%以上;

3)我們的投資收入肯定會大幅成長,因為波克夏所持有的巨額美國國債部位終於開始支付遠高於預期的收益,而以往的收益回報往往十分微薄;

4)保險業可能會有不錯的表現,這是因為保險業的承保收益與經濟中其他領域的收益並不相關,此外財產保險價格已經走強。

保險業務如期通過考核,然而我對BNSFBHE預期有誤,讓我們分別來看看。

 

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Rail is essential to America’s economic future. It is clearly the most efficient way – measured by cost, fuel usage and carbon intensity – of moving heavy materials to distant destinations. Trucking wins for short hauls, but many goods that Americans need must travel to customers many hundreds or even several thousands of miles away. The country can’t run without rail, and the industry’s capital needs will always be huge. Indeed, compared to most American businesses, railroads eat capital.

鐵路對美國經濟的未來至關重要,從成本、燃料使用和碳排放強度等方面衡量,鐵路顯然是將重型材料運往遙遠目的地的最有效方式。卡車運輸在短途運輸中勝出,但美國人需要的是將許多貨物必須運往數百甚至數千英里之外的客戶手中。國家的發展離不開鐵路,而鐵路業的資金需求始終是龐大的。事實上,與大多數美國企業相比,鐵路業非常吃資本。

BNSF is the largest of six major rail systems that blanket North America. Our railroad carries its 23,759 miles of main track, 99 tunnels, 13,495 bridges, 7,521 locomotives and assorted other fixed assets at $70 billion on its balance sheet. But my guess is that it would cost at least $500 billion to replicate those assets and decades to complete the job.

BNSF是覆蓋北美的六大鐵路系統中最大的一家,我們的鐵路擁有23759英里長的主軌道、99條隧道、13495座橋樑、7521台機車和其他各種固定資產,資產負債表上的價值高達700億美元。但我猜測,複製這些資產至少需要花費5,000億美元,而完成這項工作則需要幾十年的時間。

BNSF must annually spend more than its depreciation charge to simply maintain its present level of business. This reality is bad for owners, whatever the industry in which they have invested, but it is particularly disadvantageous in capital-intensive industries.

BNSF每年的支出必須超過折舊費用,才能維持現有的業務水準。無論業主投資於哪個行業,這一現實都對他們不利,尤其是資本密集產業。

At BNSF, the outlays in excess of GAAP depreciation charges since our purchase 14 years ago have totaled a staggering $22 billion or more than $112 billion annually. Ouch! That sort of gap means BNSF dividends paid to Berkshire, its owner, will regularly fall considerably short of BNSF’s reported earnings unless we regularly increase the railroad’s debt. And that we do not intend to do.

BNSF14年前被收購以來,超出GAAP折舊費用的支出總額已達到驚人的220億美元,即每年超過15億美元。喔!這種差距意味著,除非我們定期增加鐵路公司的債務,否則支付給其所有者波克夏的BNSF股息將經常大大低於BNSF公佈的收益,但我們不打算這麼做。

Consequently, Berkshire is receiving an acceptable return on its purchase price, though less than it might appear, and also a pittance on the replacement value of the property. That’s no surprise to me or Berkshire’s board of directors. It explains why we could buy BNSF in 2010 at a small fraction of its replacement value.

因此,波克夏的收購價格獲得了可接受的回報,儘管比表面上看起來的要少,而且資產重置價值也很低。我或波克夏董事會對此並不感到意外,這也解釋了為什麼我們能在2010年以其重置價值的一小部分買下BNSF

North America’s rail system moves huge quantities of coal, grain, autos, imported and exported goods, etc. one-way for long distances and those trips often create a revenue problem for back-hauls. Weather conditions are extreme and frequently hamper or even stymie the utilization of track, bridges and equipment. Flooding can be a nightmare. None of this is a surprise. While I sit in an always-comfortable office, railroading is an outdoor activity with many employees working under trying and sometimes dangerous conditions.

北美的長途鐵路系統單程運輸大量的煤炭、穀物、汽車、進出口貨物等,這些運輸回程車的收入往往出現問題。天氣條件極度惡劣,經常妨礙甚至阻礙軌道、橋樑和設備的使用。洪水更是一場惡夢,這些都不足為奇。雖然我坐在舒適的辦公室裡,但鐵路運輸是一項戶外工作,許多員工在艱苦、有時甚至危險的條件下工作。

An evolving problem is that a growing percentage of Americans are not looking for the difficult, and often lonely, employment conditions inherent in some rail operations. Engineers must deal with the fact that among an American population of 335 million, some forlorn or mentally-disturbed Americans are going to elect suicide by lying in front of a 100-car, extraordinarily heavy train that can’t be stopped in less than a mile or more. Would you like to be the helpless engineer? This trauma happens about once a day in North America; it is far more common in Europe and will always be with us.

一個不斷演變的問題是,越來越多的美國人不願意在某些鐵路運營中從事艱苦且孤獨的工作。工程師必須面對這樣一個事實:在美國3.35億人口中,一些孤苦無依或精神失常的美國人將選擇躺在100節車廂的超重型列車前自殺,而這種列車在不到一英里或更長的距離內是停不下來的。你想成為那個無助的工程師嗎?在北美,這種創傷每天都會發生一次;在歐洲,這種情況要普遍得多,而且會一直伴隨著我們。

Wage negotiations in the rail industry can end up in the hands of the President and Congress. Additionally, American railroads are required to carry many dangerous products every day that the industry would much rather avoid. The words “common carrier” define railroad responsibilities.

鐵路業的工資談判最終可能掌握在總統和國會手中,此外,美國鐵路公司每天都需要運輸許多危險產品,而這該行業想極力避免的,共同承運人一詞界定了鐵路的責任。

Last year BNSF’s earnings declined more than I expected, as revenues fell. Though fuel costs also fell, wage increases, promulgated in Washington, were far beyond the country’s inflation goals. This differential may recur in future negotiations.

去年,由於收入下降,BNSF的獲利下降幅度超出了我的預期。雖然燃料成本也有所下降,但華盛頓頒布的工資漲幅遠遠超出了國家的通膨目標,這種差異可能會在未來的談判中再次出現。

Though BNSF carries more freight and spends more on capital expenditures than any of the five other major North American railroads, its profit margins have slipped relative to all five since our purchase. I believe that our vast service territory is second to none and that therefore our margin comparisons can and should improve.

雖然BNSF比北美其他五大鐵路公司運載更多的貨物,花費更多的資本支出,但自我們收購以來,其利潤率相對於所有五大鐵路公司均有所下滑。我相信,我們廣闊的服務區域是首屈一指的,因此利潤率可以而且應該會有所改善。

I am particularly proud of both BNSF’s contribution to the country and the people who work in sub-zero outdoor jobs in North Dakota and Montana winters to keep America’s commercial arteries open. Railroads don’t get much attention when they are working but, were they unavailable, the void would be noticed immediately throughout America.

我特別為BNSF對國家的貢獻感到自豪,也為那些在北達科他州和蒙大拿州冬天在零下的戶外工作以保持美國商業動脈暢通的人們感到自豪。鐵路在運行時不會受到太多關注,但如果鐵路無法運行,整個美國都會立即註意到這方面的問題。

A century from now, BNSF will continue to be a major asset of the country and of Berkshire. You can count on that.

百年之後,BNSF仍將是美國和波克夏的重要資產,這一點您可以信賴。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Our second and even more severe earnings disappointment last year occurred at BHE. Most of its large electric-utility businesses, as well as its extensive gas pipelines, performed about as expected. But the regulatory climate in a few states has raised the specter of zero profitability or even bankruptcy (an actual outcome at California’s largest utility and a current threat in Hawaii). In such jurisdictions, it is difficult to project both earnings and asset values in what was once regarded as among the most stable industries in America.

去年,我們第二個甚至更嚴重錯誤是,對BHE收益感到失望。該公司的大部分大型電力業務以及廣泛的天然氣管道業務的表現與預期差不多,但是一些州的監管環境帶來了零利潤甚至破產的擔憂(這是加州最大的公用事業公司的實際結果,也是夏威夷目前面臨的威脅)。在這樣的司法管轄區,曾經被認為是美國最穩定的產業之一的收益和資產價值也很難預測。

For more than a century, electric utilities raised huge sums to finance their growth through a state-by-state promise of a fixed return on equity (sometimes with a small bonus for superior performance). With this approach, massive investments were made for capacity that would likely be required a few years down the road. That forward-looking regulation reflected the reality that utilities build generating and transmission assets that often take many years to construct. BHE’s extensive multi-state transmission project in the West was initiated in 2006 and remains some years from completion. Eventually, it will serve 10 states comprising 30% of the acreage in the continental United States.

一個多世紀以來,電力公司透過各州承諾的固定股本回報率(有時業績優異會有小額獎金)籌集巨額資金,為公司發展提供資金。透過這種方式,大量的投資被用於未來幾年可能需要的產能。這項前瞻性規定反映了一個現實,即公用事業公司建設發電和輸電資產往往需要多年時間。BHE在西部廣泛的多州輸電項目於2006年啟動,距離完成還有幾年時間。最終,它將服務於10個州,占美國大陸面積的30%

With this model employed by both private and public-power systems, the lights stayed on, even if population growth or industrial demand exceeded expectations. The “margin of safety” approach seemed sensible to regulators, investors and the public. Now, the fixed-but-satisfactoryreturn pact has been broken in a few states, and investors are becoming apprehensive that such ruptures may spread. Climate change adds to their worries. Underground transmission may be required but who, a few decades ago, wanted to pay the staggering costs for such construction?

私營和公共電力系統都採用這種模式,即使人口成長或工業需求超出預期,燈也會亮著。對於監管者、投資者和公眾看來,這種「安全邊際」方法是明智的。現在,這種「固定但令人滿意的回報」模式已經在幾個州被打破,投資者開始擔心這種破裂會蔓延開來。氣候變遷加劇了他們的擔憂。地下輸電可能是必要的,但幾十年前,有誰願意為這種建設支付高昂的費用?

At Berkshire, we have made a best estimate for the amount of losses that have occurred. These costs arose from forest fires, whose frequency and intensity have increased – and will likely continue to increase – if convective storms become more frequent.

在波克夏,我們對已經發生的損失金額進行了最佳估算。這些損失是由森林火災造成的,如果對流風暴變得更加頻繁,森林火災的頻率和強度都會增加,而且很可能會繼續增加。

It will be many years until we know the final tally from BHE’s forest-fire losses and can intelligently make decisions about the desirability of future investments in vulnerable western states. It remains to be seen whether the regulatory environment will change elsewhere.

我們還需要很多年才能知道BHE森林火災損失的最終統計結果,並明智地做出未來在脆弱的西部各州投資決策。其他地方的監管環境是否會發生變化,還有待觀察。

Other electric utilities may face survival problems resembling those of Pacific Gas and Electric and Hawaiian Electric. A confiscatory resolution of our present problems would obviously be a negative for BHE, but both that company and Berkshire itself are structured to survive negative surprises. We regularly get these in our insurance business, where our basic product is risk assumption, and they will occur elsewhere. Berkshire can sustain financial surprises but we will not knowingly throw good money after bad.

其他電力公司可能會面臨與太平洋天然氣電力公司和夏威夷電力公司類似的生存問題。如果以沒收的方式解決目前的問題,顯然會對BHE造成不利影響,但該公司和波克夏本身的結構都能應對不利的意外情況。我們的基本產品是風險承擔,我們的保險業務經常會出現這種情況,其他業務也會發生這種情況。波克夏可以承受財務意外,但我們不會故意把好錢花在壞事上。

Whatever the case at Berkshire, the final result for the utility industry may be ominous: Certain utilities might no longer attract the savings of American citizens and will be forced to adopt the public-power model. Nebraska made this choice in the 1930s and there are many public-power operations throughout the country. Eventually, voters, taxpayers and users will decide which model they prefer.

無論波克夏的情況如何,公用事業行業的最終結果可能是不好的:某些公用事業公司可能無法吸引美國公民的儲蓄。內布拉斯加州在1930年代就做出了這樣的選擇,全國各地也有許多公共電力公司。最終,選民、納稅人和用戶將決定他們更喜歡哪種模式。

When the dust settles, America’s power needs and the consequent capital expenditure will be staggering. I did not anticipate or even consider the adverse developments in regulatory returns and, along with Berkshire’s two partners at BHE, I made a costly mistake in not doing so.

當一切塵埃落定,美國的電力需求和隨之而來的資本支出將是驚人的,我和波克夏在BHE的兩位合夥人都沒有預料到甚至沒有考慮到監管回報的不利發展,我犯了一個代價高昂的錯誤。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Enough about problems: Our insurance business performed exceptionally well last year, setting records in sales, float and underwriting profits. Property-casualty insurance (“P/C”) provides the core of Berkshire’s well-being and growth. We have been in the business for 57 years and despite our nearly 5,000-fold increase in volume – from $17 million to $83 billion – we have much room to grow.

問題說得夠多了:去年我們的保險業務表現優異,在銷售額、浮動虧損和承保利潤方面都創下了記錄。財產-責任保險(P/C)是波克夏公司福祉和成長的核心。我們從事這項業務已有57年,我們的業務量成長了近5,000倍,從1,700萬美元成長到830億美元,未來我們仍有很大的成長空間。

Beyond that, we have learned – too often, painfully – a good deal about what types of insurance business and what sort of people to avoid. The most important lesson is that our underwriters can be thin, fat, male, female, young, old, foreign or domestic. But they can’t be optimists at the office, however desirable that quality may generally be in life.

除此之外,我們還學到了--往往是痛苦地學到了--應該避開哪些類型的保險業務和哪些人。保險業務最重要的教訓是,我們的承保人可以是瘦的、胖的、男的、女的、年輕的、年老的、外國的或國內的。但在辦公室裡,他們不能是樂觀主義者,無論這種特質在生活中通常多麼令人嚮往。

Surprises in the P/C business – which can occur decades after six-month or one-year policies have expired – are almost always negative. The industry’s accounting is designed to recognize this reality, but estimation mistakes can be huge. And when charlatans are involved, detection is often both slow and costly. Berkshire will always attempt to be accurate in its estimates of future loss payments but inflation – both monetary and the “legal” variety – is a wild card.

意外險業​​務中的意外幾乎總是負面的,這種意外可能在六個月或一年期保單到期幾十年後才出現。該行業的會計是為了認識到這一現實而設計的,但估算錯誤可能非常嚴重。如果涉及到騙子,檢測往往既緩慢又昂貴。波克夏總是試圖準確估算未來的損失賠付,但通膨(包括貨幣和「法律」方面的通貨膨脹)是一個未知數。

I’ve told the story of our insurance operations so many times that I will simply direct newcomers to page 18. Here, I will only repeat that our position would not be what it is if Ajit Jain had not joined Berkshire in 1986. Before that lucky day – aside from an almost unbelievably wonderful experience with GEICO that began early in 1951 and will never end – I was largely wandering in the wilderness, as I struggled to build our insurance operation.

關於我們的保險業務,我已經講過很多次了,所以我只想引導新讀者閱讀第18頁。在這裡,我只想重申,如果Ajit Jain沒有在1986年加入波克夏,我們的地位就不會是現在的樣子。在那個幸運的日子之前,除了1951年初與GEICO開始的一段幾乎令人難以置信的美好經歷之外,我一直在荒野中徘徊,努力建立我們的保險業務。

Ajit’s achievements since joining Berkshire have been supported by a large cast of hugely-talented insurance executives in our various P/C operations. Their names and faces are unknown to most of the press and the public. Berkshire’s lineup of managers, however, is to P/C insurance what Cooperstown’s honorees are to baseball.

Ajit自加入波克夏以來所取得的成就,得到了我們各種財險業務中一大批才華橫溢的保險高管的支持。大多數媒體和公眾都不知道他們的名字和臉孔。不過,波克夏的基金經理陣容之於財險,就像庫柏斯敦的得獎者之於棒球一樣。

Bertie, you can feel good about the fact that you own a piece of an incredible P/C operation that now operates worldwide with unmatched financial resources, reputation and talent. It carried the day in 2023.

Bertie,你可以為自己擁有一家令人難以置信的保險公司的一部分而感到欣慰,這家公司目前在全球運營,擁有無與倫比的財務資源、聲譽和人才,它在2023年扛起了大旗。

What is it with Omaha?

今年奧馬哈有什麼?

Come to Berkshire’s annual gathering on May 4, 2024. On stage you will see the three managers who now bear the prime responsibilities for steering your company. What, you may wonder, do the three have in common? They certainly don’t look alike. Let’s dig deeper.

來參加202454日的波克夏年度股東大會吧!在台上,你會看到三位經理人,他們現在承擔管理公司的主要責任。你可能會想,這三人有什麼共通點?他們肯定長得不像,讓我們深入了解。

Greg Abel, who runs all non-insurance operations for Berkshire – and in all respects is ready to be CEO of Berkshire tomorrow – was born and raised in Canada (he still plays hockey). In the 1990s, however, Greg lived for six years in Omaha just a few blocks away from me. During that period, I never met him.

格雷格·阿貝爾(Greg Abel)負責波克夏所有非保險業務,從各方面來看,他已經做好了明天成為波克夏執行長的準備。在1990年代,Greg在奧馬哈離我只有幾個街區遠的地方住了六年,但在那段時間裡,我從未見過他。

A decade or so earlier, Ajit Jain, who was born, raised and educated in India, lived with his family in Omaha only a mile or so from my home (where I’ve lived since 1958). Both Ajit and his wife, Tinku, have many Omaha friends, though it’s been more than three decades since they moved to New York (in order to be where much of the action in reinsurance takes place).

大約十年前,在印度出生、長大、受教育的阿吉特·賈恩(Ajit Jain)和家人住在離我家只有一英里左右的地方,Ajit和他的妻子Tinku都在奧馬哈有很多的朋友,儘管他們搬到紐約已經30多年了(紐約是再保險行業的主要活動地)。

Missing from the stage this year will be Charlie. He and I were both born in Omaha about two miles from where you will sit at our May get-together. In his first ten years, Charlie lived about a half-mile from where Berkshire has long maintained its office. Both Charlie and I spent our early years in Omaha public schools and were indelibly shaped by our Omaha childhood. We didn’t meet, however, until much later. (A footnote that may surprise you: Charlie lived under 15 of America’s 45 presidents. People refer to President Biden as #46, but that numbering counts Grover Cleveland as both #22 and #24 because his terms were not consecutive. America is a very young country.)

今年查理將缺席,他和我都出生在奧馬哈,大概距離五月股東會兩英里的地方。在他出生後的頭十年裡,查理住的地方離波克夏長期以來的辦公室只有半英里遠。查理和我的童年都在奧馬哈的公立學校度過,奧馬哈的童年給我們留下了不可磨滅的影響。然而,直到很久以後,我們才認識。(一個可能會讓你驚訝的註腳:在美國45位總統中,查理經歷了15位總統,人們把拜登總統稱為第46位,這一編號把格羅弗-克利夫蘭算作第22位和第24位總統,因為他的任期不是連續的。美國是一個非常年輕的國家。)

Moving to the corporate level, Berkshire itself relocated in 1970 from its 81 years of residence in New England to settle in Omaha, leaving its troubles behind and blossoming in its new home.

在公司層面上,波克夏於1970年從在新英格蘭待了81年的地方搬遷到奧馬哈,拋開煩惱,在新家園蓬勃發展。

As a final punctuation point to the “Omaha Effect,” Bertie – yes that Bertie – spent her early formative years in a middle-class neighborhood in Omaha and, many decades later, emerged as one of the country’s great investors.

作為《奧馬哈效應》的最後點睛之筆,Bertie(伯蒂)--沒錯,就是伯蒂,早年在奧馬哈的一個中產階級社區度過了她的成長歲月,幾十年後,她成為了美國最偉大的投資者之一。

You may be thinking that she put all of her money in Berkshire and then simply sat on it. But that’s not true. After starting a family in 1956, Bertie was active financially for 20 years: holding bonds, putting 13 of her funds in a publicly-held mutual fund and trading stocks with some frequency. Her potential remained unnoticed.

你可能會認為,她把所有的錢都投到了波克夏,然後就坐吃山空了。但事實並非如此,1956年組建家庭後,伯蒂20年來一直活躍在金融領域:她持有債券,將1/3的資金投資於上市共同基金,並買賣股票。她的潛力一直未被發掘。

Then, in 1980, when 46, and independent of any urgings from her brother, Bertie decided to make her move. Retaining only the mutual fund and Berkshire, she made no new trades during the next 43 years. During that period, she became very rich, even after making large philanthropic gifts (think nine figures).

1980年,46歲的伯蒂不顧哥哥的任何勸說,決定搬家。在接下來的43年裡,她只保留了共同基金和波克夏,沒有進行任何新的交易。在此期間,她變得非常富有,甚至在捐出大筆慈善捐款(9位數)之後也是如此。

Millions of American investors could have followed her reasoning which involved only the common sense she had somehow absorbed as a child in Omaha. And, taking no chances, Bertie returns to Omaha every May to be re-energized.

數以百萬計的美國投資者本可以遵循她的推理,這些推理只涉及她小時候在奧馬哈不知怎麼吸收的常識。伯蒂不冒任何風險,每年五月都會回到奧馬哈重新充電。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

So what is going on? Is it Omaha’s water? Is it Omaha’s air? Is it some strange planetary phenomenon akin to that which has produced Jamaica’s sprinters, Kenya’s marathon runners, or Russia’s chess experts? Must we wait until AI someday yields the answer to this puzzle?

那麼到底是怎麼回事呢?是奧馬哈的水嗎?是因為奧馬哈的空氣嗎?是某種奇怪的行星現象,類似於牙買加盛產短跑運動員、肯尼亞盛產馬拉松運動員或俄羅斯盛產國際象棋專家的現象?我們必須等到人工智慧有一天給出謎題的答案嗎?

Keep an open mind. Come to Omaha in May, inhale the air, drink the water and say “hi” to Bertie and her good-looking daughters. Who knows? There is no downside, and, in any event, you will have a good time and meet a huge crowd of friendly people.

保持開放的心態。五月來奧馬哈吧,呼吸這裡的空氣,喝這裡的水,跟伯蒂和她漂亮的女兒們打個招呼。誰知道呢?沒有什麼壞處,而且,無論如何,您都會度過一段美好時光,並結識一大群友好的人。

To top things off, we will have available the new 4th edition of Poor Charlie’s Almanack. Pick up a copy. Charlie’s wisdom will improve your life as it has mine.

最重要的是,我們將推出第四版《窮查理年鑑》。拿起一本,查理的智慧將改善你的生活,就像當初改變我的生活一樣。(華爾街見聞)


February 24, 2024                                                  Warren E. Buffett 華倫‧巴菲特

Chairman of the Board 董事會主席


Berkshire’s Performance vs. the S&P 500

                                                                                                                                                            Annual Percentage Change

                                                                                                                                                            in Per-Share                                                                                                                                                                                                                 in S&P 500

                                                                                                                                                       Market Value of                                                                                                                                                                                                             with Dividends

Year                                                                                                                                                                                                        Berkshire                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Included

1965 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

49.5

10.0

1966 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

(3.4)

(11.7)

1967 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

13.3

30.9

1968 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

77.8

11.0

1969 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

19.4

(8.4)

1970 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

(4.6)

3.9

1971 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

80.5

14.6

1972 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8.1

18.9

1973 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

(2.5)

(14.8)

1974 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

(48.7)

(26.4)

1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.5

37.2

1976 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

129.3

23.6

1977 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

46.8

(7.4)

1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

14.5

6.4

1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

102.5

18.2

1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

32.8

32.3

1981 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

31.8

(5.0)

1982 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

38.4

21.4

1983 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

69.0

22.4

1984 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

(2.7)

6.1

1985 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

93.7

31.6

1986 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

14.2

18.6

1987 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.6

5.1

1988 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

59.3

16.6

1989 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

84.6

31.7

1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

(23.1)

(3.1)

1991 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

35.6

30.5

1992 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

29.8

7.6

1993 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

38.9

10.1

1994 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

25.0

1.3

1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

57.4

37.6

1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6.2

23.0

1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

34.9

33.4

1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

52.2

28.6

1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

(19.9)

21.0

2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

26.6

(9.1)

2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6.5

(11.9)

2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

(3.8)

(22.1)

2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

15.8

28.7

2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.3

10.9

2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

0.8

4.9

2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

24.1

15.8

2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

28.7

5.5

2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

(31.8)

(37.0)

2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.7

26.5

2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

21.4

15.1

2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

(4.7)

2.1

2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

16.8

16.0

2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

32.7

32.4

2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

27.0

13.7

2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

(12.5)

1.4

2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

23.4

12.0

2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

21.9

21.8

2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.8

(4.4)

2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

11.0

31.5

2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.4

18.4

2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

29.6

28.7

2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.0

(18.1)

2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

15.8

26.3

Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

19.8%

10.2%

Overall Gain – 1964-2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4,384,748%

31,223%

Note: Data are for calendar years with these exceptions: 1965 and 1966, year ended 9/30; 1967, 15 months ended 12/31.

17